Ed Miliband has been warned that investing in green technology was unlikely to reverse the long-term decline of British industry.
Sir Tony Blair’s think tank said the Energy Secretary’s claim that net zero will create hundreds of thousands industrial jobs is vastly overstated.
The Tony Blair Institute (TBI) for Global Change argues the government should “be cautious about over-selling” the job opportunities from green manufacturing because the transition away from fossil fuels is “unlikely to drive a revival in UK manufacturing employment”.
The analysis shows that if the UK fully capitalises on the net zero transition, green industries could grow from 0.8% of GDP and 200,000 jobs in 2022 to 5.8% of GDP and 1.2 million jobs by 2050, providing a significant boost in a time of slow growth.
But it warned “this outcome is not guaranteed”, adding that if the UK continues on its current path, green industries are expected to reach only 1.6% of GDP and 350,000 jobs by 2050, “barely replacing the decline of carbon-heavy ‘grey’ industries”.
The think tank added that it was a “mistake” to let net zero dominate the Government’s entire economic strategy as it would deliver only a meagre boost to growth.
It said: “It must be a pillar of the UK’s growth strategy, but it cannot be the whole strategy.”
Labour’s election manifesto promised a “Green Prosperity Plan” that “will create 650,000 jobs across the country by 2030”.
But the TBI said: “As manufacturing sectors have become more efficient over time, they have accounted for a shrinking share of the workforce. The green transition is unlikely to reverse this long-term trend in the UK.”
According to the Climate Change Committee, the UK’s green transition could potentially create between 135,000 and 725,000 new jobs by 2030 in sectors like building retrofits, renewable energy, and electric vehicle manufacturing.
The Government this week announced new investment aimed at supporting clean energy manufacturing and skilled jobs.
Ministers said offshore wind developers can now bid for financial support if they drive investment in the UK’s most deprived regions.
Applications have opened for a so-called Clean Industry Bonus, offering financial support for offshore wind developers, on condition they prioritise their investment in areas including traditional oil and gas communities.
The support rewards developers who build more sustainable low-carbon factories, offshore wind blades, cables and ports to reduce industrial emissions across the clean energy supply chain.
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said: “We are backing our proud manufacturing, coastal and oil and gas communities with good jobs, skills and private sector investment – delivering on the Government’s Plan for Change.
“This is our clean energy superpower mission in action, kickstarting growth, delivering energy security and transforming towns and cities as part of the transition – from the ports of Nigg and Leith to the manufacturing hubs of Blyth and Hull.”
A government spokesman said: “From carbon capture and storage in the north east and north west, to hydrogen projects across the country, we’re delivering thousands of jobs for our industrial communities.
“Our industrial strategy will also take advantage of the UK’s unique strengths and untapped potential, enabling our already world-leading services and manufacturing sectors to adapt and grow, with high quality, well-paid jobs.”