Donald Trump is on course for another term as US president after an exclusive poll revealed he holds narrow leads in the three northern swing states.
The 45th president, who has sold 71,000 black MAGA hats and has the support of Hulk Hogan, enjoys a three-point lead nationally, according to research by the Democracy Institute for Express US.
Trump is projected to win 50% of the total vote, compared to 47% for Kamala Harris and 3% for other candidates.
His margin of victory extends to five points in Pennsylvania – seen by many experts as the most crucial of all the swing states – where he leads his Democratic rival by 51% to 46%.
However, the lead is less pronounced in Michigan, where our poll has Trump at 49% compared to Harris at 47%.
And in Wisconsin, Trump commands a three-point lead at 50% versus Harris’s 47%. The results still point towards a tight race, with all three states within the margin of error of five points.
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are the three northern-most of the seven battleground states. Traditionally Democratic, all three were won by Trump in 2016 but then turned blue again to put Joe Biden in the White House in 2020.
Democracy Institute director Patrick Basham said: “In a very competitive race, both nationally and in the swing states, Donald Trump approaches election day in the driver’s seat, with a slim but solid hold on an apparent majority of electoral college votes.
“With a win in Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, Trump secures victory. Our final polling across these pivotal rust-belt states shows each state within his reach.
“When the votes are counted, they all may be within his grasp, such is their history of voting together. Harris has the harder task: she must defend this entire ‘blue wall’ at all costs. It’s still doable for her, but increasingly unlikely.”
Our national poll featured a randomly selected telephone (landline and cell) sample of 1,500 likely American voters between October 29 and 31.
The poll additionally surveyed 450 likely voters in each of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Each individual swing state poll has a margin of error of (+/-) 5 points at a 95% confidence interval.
The surveys were conducted via interactive voice response in which recorded questions were played for randomly dialed respondents and answers were given via telephone keypads.
To ensure a representative sample, the results were weighted for key demographic and political variables including, but not limited to, party identification, gender, age, education, income, region, voting history and cell phone-only households.
