If a general election were held today, a host of senior Labour figures would lose their seats whilst Reform UKwould equal the Liberal Democrats July success, according to a new poll.
Six cabinet members would lose their seats including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper.
The survey which asked 11,000 people their voting intention, found that Labour would lose 87 seats to the Conservatives, 67 to Reform UK, and 26 to the SNP, and their Red Wall gains would be almost entirely reversed.
The poll makes much better reading for Reform UK, with the poll predicting that they would increase their MPs fourteen-fold, taking a staggering 72 seats.
Luke Tryl, Executive Director of More in Common UK, said: “With potentially four and a half years to go, this model is not a prediction of what would happen at the next General Election.
“Instead, however, it confirms the fragmentation of British politics that we saw in July’s election has only accelerated in Labour’s six months in office.”
Mr Tryl warns that whilst the MRP is not an indication of the outcome of the next election, it does serve as a warning to the government that they must begin to deliver after a first six months blighted by controversial and unpopular policies.
He added: “While the new Government is still in its infancy it is clear that decisions such as means testing the winter fuel allowance and other budget measures have landed badly. The pressure from the public is now on the Government to deliver.”
If the election were held today, John Healey, the Defence Secretary, Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, Bridget Phillipson, the Education Secretary and Jonathan Reynolds, the Business Secretary, would all lose their seats to Reform.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who narrowly won his seat in July by just a few hundred votes, would not be so lucky and would lose his seat to an independent candidate.
The poll suggests that Reform would make significant gains across the country, particularly in South Yorkshire, North Nottinghamshire, Greater Manchester and Tyne and Wear, as well as their first ever seats in Wales.
In addition to spectacular gains, the party would also come second in more than two hundred seats as the infant party establishes itself as an alternative to traditional politics.
Responses from those surveyed suggests that the Conservatives would perform better than they did in July’s election, but given their abysmal showing, this is largely in line with expectations.
The Conservatives would win an additional 102 seats, but this would leave them some way short of being able to form a majority government.
Mr Tryl adds: “Our model also shows the challenge the Conservatives face.
“Despite the models estimate of seat gains, they would be heading for their second worst share of the vote in history, and without making significant gains against Reform on the right, and the Liberal Democrats on the left, would struggle to come even close to being able to form a majority Government.
“Instead, the big beneficiaries of the unpopularity of both main parties are Reform UK with our model estimating their number of seats will increase 14 fold. Strikingly, the Party appears to have established two particularly strong regional bases of support – one in South Yorkshire/North Nottinghamshire and the other in Tyne and Wear.”
