The main criticism of the Yankees this season is that they’ve been more scrappy than dominant. The Pinstripes are right in the mix atop the AL East, but fans expect a lot more than just that from The Bronx Bombers. The Dodgers are 10 games up in the NL West and just added Tarik Skubal. That’s more like it.
High expectations are the norm in The Bronx. It’s not out of the ordinary for the Yankees’ 62-49 record to feel a bit disappointing to a market that prides itself on demanding great, not good. But the reality is that what the Yankees have accomplished this season is a lot more impressive than the standings suggest.
That’s why it shouldn’t be a shock that the Yankees are, despite falling behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East, the clear favorite to represent the American League in the World Series.
The Bombers are +250 to win the pennant, putting them ahead of the Rays (+450), Red Sox (+650), Rangers (+900), and Mariners (+900).
The bookies seem a lot higher on the Yankees than the masses, and that’s been the case for much of the season.
That’s because the betting market is more predictive than descriptive. What has happened matters, but only to inform the odds on what will happen.
And there are plenty of reasons to believe that the best is yet to come from this bunch.
We’re now three-quarters of the way into the 2026 MLB season, and we’ve yet to see the Yankees in full voice. During their hot start, they didn’t have Gerrit Cole or Carlos Rodon; then they lost Max Fried, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Cody Bellinger.
The conga-line of stars headed to the IL has forced the Yankees to patch together hot streaks to stay afloat. It’s worked well enough. They’re 13 games over .500 with 50 games to go. Cam Schlittler’s meteoric rise helped. So did Ben Rice’s.
But now, the big picture is starting to come into full view. Judge, Stanton, and Bellinger are still weeks away from suiting up, but the Yankees now have Cole, Fried, and Schlittler healthy at the same time. The early returns are promising, and that’s with a lineup that is relying on rookies and reserves. Just imagine the possibilities when Judge, Stanton, and Bellinger come back. Not to mention whatever the Bombers do before Monday’s trade deadline.
When you project a few weeks ahead and assume that the injury crisis subsides, you can start to see why the Yankees are being priced as the team to beat in the American League, and as the MLB’s best hope of halting the Dodger Dynasty.
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The picture becomes even more promising when you map out the American League playoffs. Unlike the NL, which features a juggernaut and four other legitimate contenders (Braves, Brewers, Cubs, and Phillies), the AL is wanting. The Rays have proven to be legit, and the Red Sox have come to life, but there’s no boogeyman on this side of the bracket.
Or better yet, maybe a healthy Yankee roster will be the boogeyman.
The Yankees are +600 to win the World Series at DraftKings. It may seem like a short price for a team struggling to keep pace with the Rays, but they’ve weathered an injury crisis and still own one of the best records in baseball. If they get healthy, they’ll justify the optimism — and the price.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
