The UK could see a mild winter with weather models suggesting above normal temperatures for the time of year, an expert has said.
Dr Todd Crawford, meteorologist at Atmospheric G2, said western Europe and Scandinavia are notably warmer with high pressure “in control” for at least the first half of November.
He told GB News: “Climate models are in agreement in depicting a winter characterised by anomalous warmth to the north and east with near to even slightly-below normal temperatures in southern and western Europe.”
Nick Finnis, Senior Forecaster at Netweather, said November and perhaps December will be drier than average as a result of high pressure before wetter weather returns in January and February.
He cautioned that trend might alter as a result of La Nina weather phenomenon, where sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are cooler than average, usually leading to a cooling of the world’s climate.
It comes as temperature anomaly maps published by WX Charts show the whole of Europe as a dark shade of red – indicating above average temperatures for this time of the year. Meanwhile separate Netweather forecasts show highs of a balmy 17C in parts of England next week.
Mr Finnis said: “Remember that these seasonal forecasts are not forecasts strictly speaking, they constitute a trend, based on the analysis of the predominant signals from certain weather models.
“At this time, factors may intervene and modify this trend, in particular the behaviour of La Nina.”
A weaker than usual polar vortex is also predicted this winter, which may result in colder weather, particularly from December to February.
The Met Office’s long range forecast, covering November 2-11, expects dry, settled weather, with some frost. It says high pressure is likely to dominate across many parts of the UK, with fog and frost “likely” to develop where overnight skies are clear.
Winds are expected to be light in the south while there may be some strong winds in the north. Temperatures will be close to normal although some cold nights are possible at times, according to the Met Office.
Friday, November 1 – Tuesday, November 5
Headline: Some rain in the north. Mostly dry, but cloudy elsewhere.
Today will see a weakening band of rain move south across Scotland, with brighter but colder weather in the north-east. Fog patches will lift elsewhere, leaving a “mostly dry and mild, though rather cloudy day”. There will be patchy drizzle but some “brighter breaks”.
Tonight will be mostly cloudy but mild, with patchy fog and some light rain or drizzle this evening and overnight. Clearer spells will allow local frost to develop across the north of Scotland.
Saturday should see any early fog clearing to leave another quite cloudy day for most with drizzle possible for some. It will feel mild in any brighter breaks, but breezy in the northwest.
High pressure from Sunday to Tuesday will continue to bring dry but often cloudy weather, with some drizzle and fog patches.