The French Open offered tennis fans a glimpse of what the sport would look like if Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner never picked up a racquet.
The Spaniard missed the entire tournament with a wrist injury, and Sinner joined him after he was upset in Round 2 by Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Sinner was -225 to win the tournament before that match, but he couldn’t cope with the heat and was sent packing by the Argentinian.
In the end, we didn’t get a shock winner; Alexander Zverev was the No. 2 seed, but three of the four semifinalists, Matteo Arnaldi, Flavio Cobolli, and Jakub Mensik, were into the final four at a Grand Slam for the first time in their respective careers.
With Sinner’s fitness under scrutiny and Alcaraz still sidelined, we should be in for another unpredictable fortnight of tennis at Wimbledon.
That could open the doors for a few sleepers to outrun their odds in England.
2026 Wimbledon picks, futures, long shots
Jack Draper (40/1, DraftKings)
I’m often hesitant to back Draper at Grand Slams because he gets hurt far too often, but his performances at Eastbourne last week suggest he’s operating at 100 percent.
At this time last year, Draper was ranked as the World No. 4, but injuries caused him to tumble all the way down to No. 160, which means he’s unseeded in this field.
As fate would have it, the lefty from London was drawn against Taylor Fritz in Round 1. It’s not ideal, but also not a deal-breaker. Fritz has been underwhelming for most of this year, and Draper absolutely has the game to go toe-to-toe with the American.
He’s quick, powerful, and has the necessary craft and guile to succeed on the grass. It doesn’t hurt that he was basically raised on these courts, either.
Draper’s proven he can win big titles; he won the 2025 Indian Wells Masters, but now he needs to show he can handle the rigors of Grand Slam tennis. His coach, Andy Murray, can teach him a thing or two about that.
With Alcaraz out of the picture and Sinner looking vulnerable, Draper may never get a better opportunity to delight the crowd at Wimbledon.
Alexander Bublik (60/1, FanDuel)
One of the most polarizing players in tennis, Alexander Bublik, was a trendy pick to win Wimbledon last year. And for good reason.
Gifted with a massive serve, Bublik was playing the best tennis of his career last summer. He went to the quarterfinals at Roland Garros, lifted a trophy on the grass at Halle, and then, as fate would have it, was unceremoniously upset in Round 1 at Wimbledon.
He responded by winning 12 matches (including two finals) in a row before losing to Sinner in the Round of 16 at the US Open.
The point is, Bublik is one of the most talented players in this field. And if he feels up to it, he can dominate on the grass thanks to his massive serve.
He’s just as likely to be bounced in Round 1 as he is to make a deep run, but the upside is impossible to ignore at this price.
Arthur Fils (130/1, DraftKings)
A month ago, Arthur Fils was 27/1 to win the French Open. He’s now 5x that price at Wimbledon.
While the change in surface does change things, I don’t see why Fils’ game wouldn’t translate well to the grass. He’s got an almighty serve, and he’s lightning quick on his feet, which gives him a 1-2 combo that few players in this field can compete with.
And although most people peg Roland Garros as Fils’ best chance to win a Grand Slam, the best showing in his short career came at Wimbledon, when he made it to the Round of 16 last year.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.