There’s a reality in which the Warriors’ future doesn’t hinge on the No. 11 pick in the upcoming NBA draft. Sure, they could trade the selection for a superstar.
But that’s not what we’re talking about.
It’s whether they could go back and redo their previous lottery picks.
A run of savvy selections in the early 2010s built the foundation of a dynasty, delivering Steph Curry (seventh overall, 2009), Klay Thompson (11th, 2011) and Draymond Green (35th, 2012) among other key contributors.
But the well has dried up, taking with it any hope of executing owner Joe Lacob’s bold “two-timeline” plan. That hope disappeared when the franchise used two of its highest selections this millennium on James Wiseman (second overall, 2020) and Jonathan Kuminga (seventh, 2021).
As far as the draft goes, the Warriors have been light-years behind.
There have been 44 players taken since Green who have gone on to earn All-Star selections, but none have been among the 21 prospects drafted by Golden State.
The good news is that this year’s draft is considered so deep it will be almost impossible to go wrong with the 11th pick. The Warriors will also have a different man in charge of the draft room from the last time they held a lottery pick.
Mike Dunleavy Jr. has proven to be adept at identifying role players late in the draft since assuming the general manager’s post from Bob Myers weeks before the 2022 draft.
But this will be Dunleavy’s first lottery selection.
“We’ll just draft who we think is going to be the best player for us with our franchise moving forward,” Dunleavy said last month. “That’s what we’ve always done. Particularly the last few years we were pretty good about it whether it’s first or second round, whatever.
“We’re a little higher this year, but we’ll take the same approach.”
A report card on the Warriors’ recent history in the NBA draft, dating back to 2020:
A’s
None
The crux of the Warriors’ problems: While they have been able to find role players in the first round and value deeper in the draft, they’ve been bereft of top-line talent.
A selection of players taken after the Warriors’ past three lottery picks: Tyrese Haliburton, Deni Avdija, Tyrese Maxey, Franz Wagner, Alperen Sengun, Trey Murphy III.
You get the picture.
B’s
Moses Moody — 14th overall, 2021
Gui Santos — 55th overall, 2022
Brandin Podziemski — 19th overall, 2023
All three players will be part of the Warriors’ rotation for years to come.
Santos looks to be the steal of the 2022 draft — a credit to the Warriors’ international scouting operation and their player development. The Brazilian played an entire season in the G League before making his NBA debut and saw the court sparingly the past two seasons but broke out in a big way this year, starting 26 of the Warriors’ final 32 games while averaging 15.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and four assists per game.
Moody, the Warriors’ last lottery selection, isn’t a star but had developed into a quality 3-and-D player before tearing the patellar tendon in his left knee in March.
It would be difficult to do better at No. 19 than Podziemski, who played all 82 games this past season and looks to be in line to join Moody and Santos with a contract extension this summer.
C’s
Ryan Rollins — 44th overall, 2022
Quinten Post — 52nd overall, 2024
Will Richard — 56th overall, 2025
The jury is still out on Richard, who looked far better than a late second-round pick before hitting a wall toward the end of his rookie season. Likewise, Post has contributed more than can be expected from the seventh-to-last selection the previous year.
Rollins is a big win — for the Bucks.
The undersized guard didn’t get much of a chance with Golden State, appearing in only 12 games as a rookie before being traded for Chris Paul. But three years and two teams later, Rollins averaged 17.3 points and 5.6 assists as Milwaukee’s starting point guard.
D’s
Nico Mannion — 48th overall, 2020
Jonathan Kuminga — 7th overall, 2021
Trayce Jackson-Davis — 57th overall, 2023
According to assistant GM Larry Harris, “If I were to tell you that Joe [Lacob] likes the draft, that would be the understatement of the world.”
By all accounts, the Warriors owner loved Kuminga and viewed the raw-but-tantalizing teenager as their ticket into the post-Curry era. In one of the more regrettable sagas of Lacob’s otherwise sterling stewardship, that is not how it played out.
Coach Steve Kerr and Kuminga never saw eye-to-eye on the court, contentious contract negotiations played out in the public eye and the Warriors ended up trading him for pennies on the dollar once it became clear the situation was irreconcilable.
Kuminga could still become a great NBA player — he is still only 23 and is in a better situation with the Hawks — but it was never going to happen in Golden State.
F’s
James Wiseman — 2nd overall, 2020
Justinian Jessup — 51st overall, 2020
Patrick Baldwin — 28th overall, 2022
Wiseman has some competition among the Warriors’ biggest draft busts — including their present GM, taken No. 3 overall in 2002 — but there’s no doubt the oft-injured and ineffective big man was their most misguided selection of the current era.
A free agent since being released in December by the Pacers — his third NBA team — Wiseman has logged just 152 games in five seasons since Golden State made him its highest draft pick since Joe Smith in 1995.
The Hornets took LaMelo Ball with the next pick, and Haliburton went 12th overall, leaving the Warriors and their fans wondering: What if?
Hey, at least they didn’t pass on Luka Doncic for Marvin Bagley.