There are a handful of PGA Tour events that can claim to be “the best of the rest” compared to the majors, but if you ask seasoned pros, the Memorial, held every year at Jack Nicklaus’ Muirfield Village, tops the list as the most important tournament outside of the big four.
Not only because this tournament is essentially an annual celebration of Nicklaus, but also because it often plays as one of the stiffest tests on the circuit every year. It’s a perfect warm-up for the U.S. Open, which is two weeks on the horizon.
Scottie Scheffler hasn’t won a tournament since the American Express in January, but he remains in his normal perch atop the odds board. Scheffler, who is the two-time defending champion, is +310 to three-peat at Muirfield Village.
Scheffler is the only player with single-digit odds, with Rory McIlroy (10/1), Cameron Young (15/1), Ludvig Aberg (15/1), and Xander Schauffele (17/1) rounding out the top five.
Muirfield Village always attracts an elite field, and it’s a grueling course, so it’s no shock that most of the recent winners at this venue were heavyweights in their prime: Collin Morikawa in 2020, Patrick Cantlay in 2021, Viktor Hovland in 2023, and then Scheffler the past two years.
Billy Horschel’s triumph in 2022 was the only surprise in that span, and he was far from an also-ran in those days.
This isn’t the type of tournament where you want to get too cute with long shots, so we’ll focus most of our attention on the top of the board.
The Memorial picks, best bets
Patrick Cantlay (30/1, FanDuel)
It’s been nearly four years since Patrick Cantlay made it into the winner’s circle, but he looks to be trending towards his next win. Since missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer in March, Cantlay has finished 12th or better in four of his last six starts, including at the Masters and two signature events (RBC Heritage and the Truist).
And if there is a place where it would make logical sense for Cantlay to break his schneid, it would be Muirfield Village. Cantlay has two wins (2019, 2021) and five top-10 finishes in his last 10 trips to Jack’s Place. He finished T12 here a year ago.
Tommy Fleetwood (33/1, DraftKings)
Tommy Fleetwood hasn’t been seen since missing the cut at the PGA Championship, a result that seems to be weighing down his odds quite a bit for the Memorial.
That doesn’t make too much sense to me since Fleetwood’s previous outing saw him finish T5 against a similar field at the Truist. Plus, Fleetwood’s season-long numbers, five top-10s and three top-5s in 10 tournaments, still sparkle.
Hideki Matsuyama (45/1, DraftKings)
It’s been a season of highs and lows for Hideki Matsuyama.
The 11-time PGA Tour winner came off the blocks hot with four top-15 finishes, including a runner-up, in his first four starts, but things simmered from there until the Masters, where he finished T12.
Unfortunately, the Japanese star went right back off the boil after Augusta, culminating with an 11-over at the Truist.
Matsuyama was able to quickly fix whatever was ailing him that week, as he’s looked much closer to the best version of himself at the PGA Championship and last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
Matsuyama now heads to a course where he’s finished 16th or better four times in his last eight trips.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.