Game 1 between the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres was not the thrilling affair many predicted.
It was tepid, sloppy and lacked the sizzle that we’ve seen from these two high-octane teams throughout the season.
Montreal was especially disappointing. Fresh off defeating the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 7 on Sunday, the Habs looked a step behind the Sabres, who weren’t all that sharp themselves.
Buffalo did do a masterful job of managing the game and playing to the clock in the third period, but the Sabres should expect a very different version of the Canadiens on Friday night.
Sabres vs. Canadiens odds, prediction
The Canadiens showed some versatility against the Lightning.
The Bolts knew they couldn’t match Montreal’s speed, so they turned it into a back-alley scrap, but the Habs were able to get through it thanks to some fortunate bounces, timely scoring and excellent goaltending.
That all abandoned Montreal in Game 1 against Buffalo.
Jakub Dobes, who starred in goal for the Canadiens in Round 1, was poor against the Sabres, but he also didn’t get much help from his teammates.
Buffalo remained patient, waited for mistakes and capitalized on them. The Habs seemed to be gripping their sticks too tightly and never really found daylight.
There are growing concerns in Montreal about the form of its star players.
Cole Caufield hasn’t scored at 5-on-5 in the postseason, Nick Suzuki just notched his second goal of the playoffs Wednesday and Juraj Slafkovsky has been held off the scoresheet since Game 1 against the Lightning.
Betting on the NHL?
Despite all of that, it wasn’t like the Sabres played the Canadiens off the ice. That was Montreal’s worst effort of the postseason, and they still outshot the Sabres, 28-16. The expected goals numbers weren’t lopsided, nor were the high-danger scoring chances.
Buffalo was a deserving winner, but the result was as much to do with sloppiness from Montreal as it was dominance from the Sabres.
An improvement from the Canadiens should be expected, and that should turn Game 2 into a coin flip. So the plus-money price on the Habs looks appealing.
The Play: Canadiens moneyline (+114, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.