There is no question about where Fernando Mendoza, a lock to be the first quarterback and player selected at the 2026 NFL Draft, is going to end up.
But where Ty Simpson, the presumed QB2 for this year’s draft, will go is anybody’s guess.
In fact, it’s still up in the air if Simpson even hears his name on the first night of the festivities in Pittsburgh. The odds are in his favor — bet365 Sportsbook has Over 1.5 quarterbacks taken in Round 1 at -210 odds — but that price leaves a lot of room for Mendoza being the only signal-caller selected in the first 32 picks.
Mendoza and Simpson headline what is projected to be a weak quarterback class that also includes LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Miami’s Carson Beck, Penn State’s Drew Allar and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik.
Nussmeier, Klubnik and Allar all entered the 2026 NFL Draft cycle with top-10 hype, while Mendoza and Simpson were relative unknowns except to college football diehards. A lot changes in a year.
Simpson’s stock quickly rose after a strong start to the season in Tuscaloosa, his first as QB1, but the Tennessee native had a couple of duds, including when his Crimson Tide were completely outclassed by Mendoza’s Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl.
Nonetheless, Simpson still posted a terrific statline, throwing for 3,567 yards and 28 touchdowns, while only throwing five interceptions.
The betting market has identified two teams that seem to be a solid fit for Simpson’s game.
Betting on the NFL?
The Cardinals and Jets are essentially co-favorites to land the Simpson at bet365, with Arizona (+125) slightly ahead of Gang Green (+175).
Three other teams, the Rams (+500), Steelers (+850) and Browns (+850), are seen as potential landing spots for the 23-year-old.
Traders at Kalshi, one of the world’s leading prediction markets, beg to differ and have identified the Rams as Simpson’s likely landing spot.
It’s still a relatively immature market with $33,327 traded at the time of writing, but Los Angeles is the runaway favorite at 59 percent, putting it well ahead of the Cardinals (30 percent), Panthers (22 percent), Texans (22 percent), Bengals (21 percent), and Jets (19 percent).
Most mocks suggest that the Rams selecting Simpson at No. 13 would be a reach, so perhaps this is indicating that Los Angeles would be open to moving back in Round 1, or trying to find its way back in after selecting somebody else at No. 13.
Or maybe somebody, somewhere, is confident that Sean McVay and his camp are enamored with Simpson and are willing to grab him with their first pick.
This is one to keep an eye on over the next few weeks.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.