Fernando Mendoza is a lock to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, but there is a camp out there that believes that Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love is the best player available.
Among that camp is veteran NFL Draft pundit Todd McShay, who recently went on “The Joel Klatt Show” and explained that Love is the first RB he’s ever had ranked No. 1 on his big board.
McShay also shared that multiple teams have the same opinion of Love.
And yet, Love is slipping in mock drafts, and is now a -190 favorite to fall out of the top four, per bet365 Sportsbook, and Kalshi has the Commanders, picking seventh, as his most likely destination.
Interestingly, bet365 still has Love as the favorite to be the No. 4 pick. Still, his price has drifted from odds-on territory to +140, putting the versatile tailback just ahead of Texas Tech defensive end Davild Bailey (+300), Miami defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. (+500) and Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles (+750).
No matter how it shakes out, Love is going to be one of the wild cards in the first round, and it’s all because it is taboo to use a high draft pick on running backs.
There hasn’t been a running back selected with a top-five pick since 2018, when the Giants made history by selecting Penn State’s Saquon Barkley at No. 2 overall.
And wouldn’t you know, Big Blue could be in the position to end that streak as they are the third-favorite to land Love at Kalshi at 18 percent, just ahead of the Jets (15 percent).
But because Love is so highly regarded as a prospect, there are certainly teams further down the pecking order who would be willing to trade up for the chance to select the Doak Walker Award winner.
The NFL Draft betting market is known for its volatility and wild swings as more information hits the news cycle, and it would seem like a safe bet that Love’s position is going to be behind a lot of the movement as we get closer to April 23.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.