Republican Bruce Blakeman is chipping away at Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul’s lead in the race for governor, a new independent poll reveals.
Hochul’s lead over Blakeman, the current Nassau County executive, plunged from 20 percentage points to 13 points among registered New York state voters over the past month, according to the Siena College survey released Tuesday.
Hochul now leads Blakeman 47% to 34%, down from a 51% to 31% advantage for the incumbent in February.
Part of the shift toward Blakeman and away from Hochul came from non-affiliated or independent voters.
Blakeman now leads independents by 7 points after Hochul led by 5 points last month.
Her substantial lead among registered New York City voters also dropped, from from 46 points — 63% to 17% — last month to 29 points, 54% to 25% in March.
The poll of 804 registered voters shows Hochul up by 5 points in the suburbs and 2 points upstate, the latter is within the poll’s 4.2 percentage point margin of error.
“Is that movement or merely noise? Let’s see what happens next month after the budget is approved and as the campaign unfolds,” said Siena pollster Steve Greenberg.
Both Hochul and her Republican opponent Lee Zeldin had primary opponents in the Siena College poll from March 2022. The primary elections did not take place until June and Zeldin wasn’t even mentioned in the Siena poll from that month.
Follow live updates on Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s socialist agenda and the latest in NYC politics
But in an August 2022 Siena poll, Hochul led Zeldin by 14 points, 53% to 39%.
Blakeman’s campaign released an internal poll last week claiming he was down by only 9 points, and his own tracking has him ahead in the suburbs and winning more support among voters in the city than the Siena poll indicated.
“We’re closing the gap at lightning speed because New Yorkers need real relief from Kathy Hochul’s cost of living crisis, and they’ll get it with my plan to cut income taxes, slash utility bills in half, and make New York affordable,” Blakeman said.
Hochul campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovack, responding to the Siena poll said, “Every day, Kathy Hochul is delivering for New Yorkers – lowering costs, investing billions to keep families safe, and standing up to Donald Trump – while Bruce Blakeman is offering the opposite: higher prices, Medicaid cuts, and letting Trump’s ICE trample on New Yorkers’ rights. That’s how you become a six-time loser, and it’s why Blakeman is being rejected again.”
Hochul has a huge fundraising advantage, with $20.18 million in her campaign treasury compared with $1.6 million for Blakeman’s run, election records show.