Are we surprised that No. 6 Tennessee willed its way to the Elite Eight?
It’ll be its third straight appearance there Sunday when it takes on No. 1 seed Michigan for a ticket to Indianapolis.
The Vols upset Iowa State, 76-62, and it all came down to gobbling up nearly double more rebounds than the Cyclones on Friday.
They dominated the Cyclones in the paint by a 42-30 advantage and their front line of Jaylen Carey and Felix Okpara both had themselves double-doubles.
Tennessee found success all season by pouncing on second chances, ranking No. 1 in Torvik’s Offensive Rebound Rate.
All of the sudden, the Vols have climbed to eighth overall in Power Rating.
Tennessee vs. Michigan prediction, best bet
They’ve covered the spread in all three of their tournament games, but there’s still some smoke and mirrors since Tennessee had the luxury of playing Iowa State without star forward Joshua Jefferson.
Michigan will expose those mirages.
It flipped a two-point halftime deficit to Alabama on its head to win 90-77 via Yaxel Lendeborg’s 23 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists. The Wolverines also flexed their depth, outscoring Alabama, 22-6, in bench points.
No, the Wolverines are not nearly as efficient as the Vols in rebounding, but they won’t need to be.
Tennessee ranks 149th in two-point rate and 175th in 3-point rate. That’s a problem against a Wolverines offense that ranks second and 29th overall in those categories, respectively.
Michigan’s defense will be overwhelming. The Wolverines sport the No. 1 overall defensive rating in contrast to Tennessee’s 31st-ranked offensive rating, per KenPom.
Then there’s ball security. Michigan averages only 11.7 turnovers per game, so if its preserves its shooting advantage, the Wolverine neutralize Tennessee’s pressure defense hence its ability to control pace.
Betting on College Basketball?
It’s also worth noting that Dusty May is 3-0 straight-up and against the spread as a neutral-court favorite between 6.5-12 points.
It’s a big number to swallow for an Elite Eight game, but I have no lack of faith in arguably the tournament’s most complete team in scoring, toughness and discipline.
THE PLAY: Michigan -7.5 (-110, bet365)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.