Spring is in the air, the grounds crew is watering the infield, and cracker jacks are being passed around the ballpark – it’s baseball‘s Opening Day.
The Mets get their season underway on Thursday as they send newly acquired ace Freddy Peralta to the hill opposite a Pirates squad that is becoming a trendy pick to make the playoffs.
In fact, Pittsburgh is projected to win 80 games for the first time since 2018, although the Mets’ season-long prognostication is much better with an Over/Under set at 90.5 wins.
Still, the Mets find themselves as the slighest of favorites, -120 on Thursday afternoon on Fanatics Sportsbook against the Pirates, thanks in large part to ace Paul Skenes taking the mound for the Buccos.
Skenes’ Over/Under for outs recorded is 15.5, so sportsbooks project the intimidating right-hander to complete five innings for his Opening Day start.
Skenes was dominant in the World Baseball Classic, tossing 8 ⅓ innings with nine strikeouts and just one earned run.
Peralta did not have the benefit of pitching in the WBC, so he may be a bit undercooked compared to his counterpart.
The Mets are the best team in baseball on Opening Day when looking at it from a historical perspective.
The Mets have a 64.1 percent win rate and a 41-23 record in their team’s history, although the Pirates are no slouch either in their long-standing history.
Pittsburgh is 74-65 (53.2 percent win rate) on Opening Day.
So we can throw those numbers out for now and dive into the matchup, beginning at 1:15 p.m. ET, on NBC.
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Mets vs. Pirates prediction
Without knowing the lineup, the only player who has hit Skenes with any relative success is Mark Vientos, who is 2-for-3 with a double against the star righty.
Whether he actually makes the lineup remains to be seen, but overall, the Mets’ other projected starters are 4-for-24 (.166 AVG.) against Skenes.
Pittsburgh has a much bigger sample size against Peralta, whom they know well from his time in Milwaukee.
Bryan Reynolds has been a standout against Peralta in a sizeable sample of 39 at-bats; he has 15 hits (.385 AVG.).
Though he accounts for more than half of the team’s hits against Peralta, as the rest of the team is just 13-for-80 against Peralta (.162 AVG.).
So betting-wise, both teams struggle against the starters with a few lone bright spots.
As for a player prop, feel free to target over .5 total bases for Reynolds (-154, BetMGM), considering his excellent previous results against the former Brewer.
As for a bet on the total game, I’m also targeting the under 3.5 total runs for the first five innings (-115, FanDuel).
These starters are among the best in baseball, and there is no doubt.
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But given their success against these lineups, it’s fair to assume that these pitchers will be dug into a pitcher’s duel in the early going on Thursday afternoon.
PREDICTION: Under 3.5 runs scored in the first five innings (-115, FanDuel) | Bryan Reynolds over .5 total bases (-154, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.