The Duke Blue Devils earned the No. 1 overall seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament with a 32-2 record, including wins over Michigan, Florida, Arizona, Michigan State and Arkansas, among others.
Jon Scheyer’s team was not only ranked as the best team by the Selection Committee, but it also sits atop the AP Rankings, and is considered the best team by KenPom and Bart Torvik, two of the most respected models in the sport.
And yet, there is cause for concern for the Blue Devils as they head into the Big Dance.
That’s not to say they’re on upset alert against No. 16-seed Siena, but there are skeptics out there who think Duke’s health will hold it back from capturing the program’s first national championship since 2015.
We’ll see if Duke can ease some of those concerns as a 28.5-point favorite over the Saints on Thursday.
Duke vs. Siena odds, prediction
The tale of the tape for this contest screams rout, but the handicap for this game comes down to how you think Duke will handle its rotation.
Winning is obviously the top priority for Scheyer and the Blue Devils, but getting out of this contest unscathed and without much huff and puff is a close second.
Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba are doubtful to feature in this contest, which puts some strain on Duke’s other stars like Cameron Boozer and Isaiah Evans.
The last thing Scheyer will want is for the Blue Devils to lean too much on Boozer, Evans and his other high-impact starters in a game they should roll, so that should put a heavy emphasis on a fast start.
Betting on College Basketball?
If the Blue Devils can storm out of the gates and put Siena away by halftime, Scheyer will have a much easier time managing his bench and putting the Blue Devils in an optimal position for a tough second-round matchup against either Ohio State or TCU.
With that in mind, a savvy way to approach this contest is to lay the 15.5 points with the Blue Devils on the first-half spread, and then consider backing the Saints to cover in the second half when Duke takes its foot off the gas.
The Play: Duke 1H spread (-15.5, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.