TORONTO — It’s been over three months since the Islanders were out of a playoff spot, allowing for the illusion of security.
This Islanders team is, plainly, much better than the last two that made the playoffs and which took until Games 81 and 82 to secure passage into the tournament, respectively, before bowing out quietly in the first round. Nevertheless, it may take this year’s outfit just as much time to clinch a spot.
As they flew north to start a three-game road trip with stops in Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal on Monday, the Islanders were mired in a five-team race for four spots — two in the Metropolitan Division and both wild-card spots — with the Penguins, Blue Jackets, Bruins and Red Wings.
With 81 points, the Islanders were one spot below the Penguins, who started the day with just as many points before playing the Avalanche, but guaranteed to stay ahead even with a loss, as they have four more regulation wins. Columbus was two points back and out of a spot; the Bruins and Red Wings were both on 80 points and occupying the two wild-card spots. Montreal, it’s worth noting, could easily fall into this race as well; currently, the Canadiens are in third in the Atlantic Division, but just two points ahead of Boston and Detroit.
The most important teams for the Islanders to watch are the Penguins and Blue Jackets, as whoever finishes first of those three will have home-ice advantage in the first round. In that respect, the Islanders do have a schedule advantage.
Pittsburgh — which has been without the injured Sidney Crosby since the Olympic break, though he is on the Penguins’ current road trip and could return soon — has the hardest remaining strength of schedule out of any team in the league. The Blue Jackets have the third toughest and, just for good measure, the Bruins are in between them.
It’s not all good news though. The Islanders are right behind that trio with a .595 remaining strength of schedule.
The Red Wings, at .575, have by far the easiest strength of schedule out of the quintet, but they’re also dealing with the toughest injury situation. Their top two centers, captain Dylan Larkin and Andrew Copp, both got hurt right after the trade deadline and were expected to miss at least two weeks.
Remaining strength of schedule, though, does omit a key bit of context: once they get back from Canada, the Islanders have just two road games in their last 12 to close out the season. So, yes, they’ll face some tough opposition, but given the frantic pace of their travel schedule since January, the Isles are probably OK with the trade-off. Their remaining games against the Blue Jackets (March 22) and Penguins (March 30) are also both at UBS.
Even going into this road trip, the Islanders had the most remaining home games left in the league, a considerable advantage, if they can just get through their last few road games unscathed.
If the Islanders do close out strong and make the playoffs, the ideal scenario is anything that gets them home ice in the first round. Beyond that, the Blue Jackets might be the opponent they’d most like to face, though there’s certainly no such thing as an easy matchup.
Pittsburgh has played the Islanders tough in two games they’ve split, plus Crosby would be an intimidating first-round opponent, especially with the potential of this being Evgeni Malkin’s last season. Carolina beat the Islanders in 2019, 2023 and 2024 — there’s no way the Islanders want any part of the ’Canes and a raucous Lenovo Center in another first-round series.
Buffalo doesn’t have any playoff experience, a plus for any potential opponent, but the Sabres are red-hot and being on the Atlantic side of the bracket, with Tampa or Montreal looming in the second round, isn’t exactly ideal.
The Isles are 2-1 against Columbus through three games and it’s been six years since the Blue Jackets have been in the playoffs. That wouldn’t be an easy series either, but it’s one the Isles could reasonably expect to get through.
First, though, they have to actually make it.