Super El Niño, what experts say record-setting pattern means for California

El Niño is primed for a comeback.

Forecasters say the globe’s most powerful climate pattern could return later this year, and if it does, it may pack enough punch to reshape weather across the Golden State.

This developing El Niño could reshape the 2026 hurricane season, which kicks off June 1, by shifting the number and intensity of storms, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center(NOAA).

They’re forecasting a 1-in-3 chance of a super El Niño in October, November, and December.

It could unleash intense heat waves, trigger severe droughts, and cause flooding worldwide.

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“The El Niño cometh,” climate scientist Zeke Hausfather wrote on social media as new forecasts rolled in.

If the pattern strengthens, California could see the classic El Niño rollercoaster: soaking winter storms, flooding risks and unusually warm temperatures across much of the state.

Some researchers say the developing system could even become a powerful one. Climate scientist Daniel Swain said recent models increasingly point to a “significant, if not strong” event.

El Niño happens when waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean warm unusually, shifting jet streams and weather patterns across the planet. The cycle — known to scientists as ENSO — swings between warm El Niño phases and cooler La Niña periods.

The current La Niña that helped shape recent weather is now fading, setting the stage for the flip.

For California, that shift matters.

Historically, strong El Niño winters have delivered heavier rains across the southern U.S. and parts of the West Coast, sometimes bringing the kind of storms that can trigger floods and mudslides after dry years.

It could also ripple far beyond the state. El Niño years often rank among the hottest globally, and they can also influence hurricane seasons — typically suppressing storms in the Atlantic while boosting activity in the Pacific.

For now, scientists stress the strength of the event is still uncertain. But with warm water already building beneath the Pacific’s surface, the odds are climbing that the climate heavyweight will soon step back into the ring.