It’s one of the most iconic rivalries in college hoops’ and it comes with a side of revenge Saturday.
No. 1 Duke (28-2) was stunned by No. 18 North Carolina (24-6) in a 71-68 classic one month ago to the day.
Now, the bitter rivals will play their regular-season finales against one another with a point spread of 17.5 points wedged between them.
Duke hasn’t lost a game since UNC guard Seth Trimble drained a corner 3-pointer for the game winner against them with 0.4 seconds left.
North Carolina vs. Duke prediction, odds
North Carolina marches into Durham, N.C. on the back of a four-game win streak that knocked off Clemson, Virginia Tech, Louisville and Syracuse.
The Tar Heels season has been built almost entirely inside the confines of Chapel Hill, where they’re a perfect 18-0. Their road and neutral-site losses include double-digit defeats to No. 22 Miami, SMU and Michigan State.
The Tar Heels’ devastating blow of losing their star in Caleb Wilson, who was averaging 19.8 points, to a broken right thumb, may be inflating this line.
However, the Tar Heels still ranked 34th in KenPom’s offensive rating entering Saturday without Wilson.
Jarin Stevenson steps in his place as more of a shot-prone power forward and less of the force inside the paint.
They’ll have to make due against the No. 1-rated team in net rating per KenPom, as of Saturday.
The Blue Devils rank fourth in offensive rating and overall field-goal percentage. They’re relentless inside the paint mostly thanks to John R. Wooden Award favorite Cameron Boozer; he’s filled Cooper Flagg’s shoes seamlessly with an average of 22.6 points and 10 rebounds.
Henri Veesaar has assumed the engine of the attack for UNC, hitting 16.5 points per game and shooting 61 percent from the field. There’s a lot of uncertainty there in this matchup.
Trimble does most of his work attacking the paint and midrange, while Luke Bogavac just showed his perimeter touch with six three-pointers against Clemson.
Betting on College Basketball?
Though against Duke’s No. 1 rank in defensive rating, the Tar Heels will have to fire 3s from the hip and hope for the best.
Duke’s offense thrives when games open up — and if the Blue Devils push toward the 80-point mark like they often do, it’s difficult to see how the Tar Heels (No. 40 in defensive rating) can keep the pace moving without Wilson.
The line on the Over/Under has risen a couple of points since opening at 144.5. That’s enough line movement for me to hit the Under.
THE PLAY: Under 146 (-110, bet365)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.