The 2026 MLB season projects to be predictable. At least according to the betting market.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are a runaway favorite to win it all at +230, Shohei Ohtani is an odds-on favorite to win NL MVP, and Aaron Judge is the clear chalk at the top of the AL MVP board.
The Cy Young races also lack depth, as Paul Skenes and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are expected to battle it out in the National League, and Tarik Skubal is expected to do the same with Garrett Crochet in the American League.
Of course, we know things won’t go exactly according to script, and it could be a good thing for bettors that the market is shaping up in this fashion.
With chunky favorites sucking up all the value at the top of the board, there are a few prices that are flying under the radar across a few different markets.
2026 MLB Futures
World Series: Detroit Tigers (28/1, Caesars)
The Detroit Tigers had a whale of a collapse in September, allowing the Cleveland Guardians to come from miles back to win the AL Central. That monumental choke will be fresh on the mind of bettors, which is why this number has stayed at a reasonable price despite the fact that the Tigers are the favorites to win their division.
Detroit’s rotation, which is headlined by Skubal, Framber Valdez, and Justin Verlander, is stacked. And the bullpen shouldn’t be an issue with Kyle Finnegan and Kenley Jansen tasked with the heavy lifting.
The American League should be wide open, and let’s not forget that Detroit was the class of the Majors for a good portion of the 2025 regular season.
Worst record: Minnesota Twins (35/1, DraftKings)
All that talk at the top about big favorites, and I didn’t even mention that the Colorado Rockies are a prohibitive -400 favorite to finish with the worst record in baseball, aka win “The Wooden Spoon.”
No surprise there, but don’t overlook the Twins in this market.
Minnesota has been tagged with a 73.5-win Over/Under, but there’s plenty of room for this team to circle the drain. The roster is already limited and will likely be dismantled throughout the season, as the organization tries to cash in on Byron Buxton, Pablo Lopez, and Joe Ryan before the Trade Deadline.
Throw in some front office upheaval, and you can see why the Twins could at least give the Rockies a run for the money in the race to the bottom.
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NL Manager of the Year: Don Kelly, Pittsburgh Pirates (16/1, bet365)
Don’t look now, but the Pittsburgh Pirates are becoming a trendy dark horse in the National League in 2026.
We’re seeing plenty of love for the Buccos to over their win total and even sneak their way into the playoffs, and it’s easy to see why.
The Pirates have a deep, talented pitching staff headlined by Skenes, the Cy Young favorite, and a lineup that features a couple of potential breakout stars in Oneil Cruz and Konnor Griffin, plus a slew of veteran sluggers with the additions of Marcell Ozuna, Brandon Lowe, and Ryan O’Hearn.
If you believe that is enough to get the Pirates into the playoffs, or even to the top of the NL Central, I’d advise you to consider backing Don Kelly to win NL Manager of the Year at 16/1, which is double the price you’d get for betting on Pittsburgh to win the division, and it’s four times the odds of the Bucs to make the playoffs.
While there is a chance that Kelly doesn’t win the award if the Pirates get into the playoffs, I’d argue it’s pretty thin, making this punt worth the risk.
Pittsburgh breaking its playoff drought would be one of the biggest stories in baseball, and that’s how these awards tend to be won.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.