The month of March is right around the corner, meaning the NCAA Men’s Tournament field of 68 will soon be established in ample anticipation of many college basketball fans around the country.
Whether you’re cheering on your alma mater or have been a devoted fan of your local team since birth, nothing quite matches the feels of March Madness.
From buzzer-beaters to upsets to one shining moment, those looking to wager are in the right place.
Before we delve into the nooks and crannies of it all, here is an early look at who can potentially cut down the nets come April.
Odds to win 2026 NCAA Tournament
| Team | Odds to win March Madness 2026 |
|---|---|
| Michigan | +450 |
| Arizona | +475 |
| Duke | +700 |
| Houston | +800 |
| Illinois | 14/1 |
| Florida | 14/1 |
| Iowa State | 15/1 |
| Connecticut | 16/1 |
| Purdue | 20/1 |
| Kansas | 25/1 |
| Texas Tech | 25/1 |
| Nebraska | 35/1 |
| Gonzaga | 40/1 |
| Michigan State | 45/1 |
| Arkansas | 45/1 |
2026 March Madness outlook
Michigan, Arizona, Duke, and Houston are highly favored to make the Final Four for good reason.
Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd’s team has NBA-level talent in the frontcourt with Koa Peat and fellow freshman Brayden Burries supplying shot-creating at guard.
Kelvin Sampson and the Cougars were one win away from the program’s first national title a year ago as they fell short against Florida in the 2025 National Title game.
North Carolina currently holds the record for most Final Four appearances in NCAA Men’s Basketball history with 21. Next up is UCLA and Duke with 18 apiece, followed by Kentucky (17) and Kansas (15).
Overall, the Big East and Big 12 conferences have accounted for four of the last five NCAA Tournament winners.
With that being said, let’s dive into the odds to make the Final Four as of mid-February.
To no one’s surprise, Michigan sits atop the board at -120, followed by Arizona with -105 odds. Some longshot teams include Nebraska (+800), St. John’s, and Vanderbilt (12/1).
2026 NCAA Tournament Final Four odds
- Michigan (-115)
- Arizona (-110)
- Duke (+130)
- Houston (+165)
- Florida (+270)
- Illinois (+300)
- Iowa State (+340)
- Connecticut (+375)
- Purdue (+500)
- Kansas (+550)
- Texas Tech (+550)
- Nebraska (+800)
- Gonzaga (+900)
- Arkansas (11/1)
- Michigan State (11/1)
- Alabama (12/1)
- Louisville, St. Johns, Vanderbilt (12/1)
- UNC, Tennessee, Virginia (14/1)
Odds as of Feb. 15th via bet365.
Recent NCAA Tournament Champions
| Team | Conference | Year | Opening odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | Big 12 | 2021 | +800 |
| Kansas | Big 12 | 2022 | +2000 |
| Connecticut | Big East | 2023, 2024 | 16/1, 11/1 |
| Florida | SEC | 2025 | +8000 |
Can’t go wrong with the Blue Bloods
Few programs are known on a first-name basis, but these historically dominant universities are always a safe bet come March, according to the public.
Duke (+700 to win the title), Connecticut (16/1), Kansas (25/1), and North Carolina (60/1) are four schools with a ton of championship glory on their resumés.
This year’s Blue Devils team features Wooden Award favorite Cameron Boozer, while Kansas is led by Darryn Peterson, who many consider a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. The Tarheels have signature wins, thanks in large part to freshman Caleb Wilson.
Other notable programs with recent tournament success include the reigning champion Florida (14/1), Houston (+800), Purdue (20/1), and Villanova (200/1).
Big Ten dominance
The top conference as of now is the Big Ten, which is projected to receive 10-11 at-large bids to the Big Dance. It all starts with Michigan and head coach Dusty May, who are winners of ten consecutive games.
The Wolverines’ blend of defensive instincts and top-notch offense has them atop the toughest conference in America. At bet365 Sportsbook, they have the best odds to win it all at +450, followed by Arizona (+475)
Joining Michigan in this top tier of March Madness “locks” are Illinois (+300 to make Final Four), Nebraska (+800), Purdue (+500), and Tom Izzo’s blue-collar Michigan State (11/1) bunch.
Searching for a Cinderella
Every year, an underdog team will make its way to the Sweet 16 and even the Final Four. They are known as a “Cinderella,” providing a spark for bettors’ pockets while becoming national talking points around sports media.
Here is a look at some recent higher seeds that pulled off multiple upsets in the NCAA Tournament.
| Team | Seed | Year | Round eliminated |
|---|---|---|---|
| VCU | 11 | 2011 | Final Four |
| Florida Gulf Coast | 15 | 2013 | Sweet Sixteen |
| Loyola Chicago | 11 | 2018 | Final Four |
| Saint Peter’s | 15 | 2022 | Elite Eight |
| NC State | 11 | 2024 | Final Four |
Betting on College Basketball?
Longshot team odds to make 2026 NCAA Tournament Final Four
- Utah State (50/1)
- TCU (55/1)
- San Diego State (75/1)
- Miami (OH), (100/1)
- McNeese (200/1)
Odds as of Feb. 15th and via Draftkings Sportsbook
Pomeroy Rankings can tell a story
The Pomeroy College Basketball ratings can become a handicapper’s best friend come March. The predictive ratings are compiled by Ken Pomeroy, a lead statistician and college basketball aficionado. Pomeroy has been publishing these analytics since 2003.
KenPom touches all major metrics on a possession-by-possession lens, including adjusted efficiency margin, offensive rating, defensive rating, adjusted tempo, strength of schedule, and non-conference strength of schedule.
Let’s take a look at the current top five teams and compare their ratings to those of previous national title winners.
2026 current Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings
| Rank | Team | Net Rating | Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan | +38.67 | 126.6 (4th overall) | 87.9 (1st overall) |
| 2 | Duke | +36.72 | 126.2 (7th overall) | 89.5 (2nd overall) |
| 3 | Arizona | +35.70 | 125.3 (11th overall) | 89.6 (3rd overall) |
| 4 | Houston | +33.38 | 125.5 (9th overall) | 92.2 (5th overall) |
| 5 | Florida | +32.98 | 124.3 (17th overall) | 91.3 (4th overall) |
Pomeroy Ratings of previous National Title winners (2021-2025)
| Rank | Team (year won title) | Net Rating | Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Baylor (2021) | +33.87 | 125.0 (2nd overall) | 91.1 (22nd overall) |
| 3 | Kansas (2022) | +27.49 | 119.2 (6th overall) | 91.7 (17th overall) |
| 1 | Connecticut (2023) | +29.86 | 120.8 (3rd overall) | 90.9 (7th overall) |
| 1 | Connecticut (2024) | +36.43 | 127.5 (1st overall) | 91.1 (4th overall) |
| 3 | Florida (2025) | +36.46 | 128.2 (2nd overall) | 91.8 (6th overall) |
The data shows that teams ranked in the top three of Pomeroy ratings are typically a lock for a national championship.
Houston favors the 2021 Baylor team with almost identical offensive and defensive ratings on both sides of the basketball. Meanwhile, top-rated Michigan is statistically close to the 2024 UConn Huskies championship team.
Nothing beats March
The Big Dance gets underway with Selection Sunday on March 15th. That is followed by the First Four games that tip off on March 17th and 18th.
The games are single-elimination style and are played across four regions (East, West, Midwest, & South). Each region will comprise 16 teams, seeded 1-16.
After consecutive weeks of action, the winning team of each region advances to the tournament’s final stage, known as the “Final Four.” Below is a full schedule for March Madness 2026.
Full 2026 NCAA Tournament schedule:
- First Round: March 19, 20
- Second Round: March 21, 22
- Sweet 16: March 26, 27
- Elite Eight: March 28, 29
- Final Four: April 4
- 2026 National Title Game: April 6
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.