It’s a bit of a shock that Sweden is playing on Tuesday, but a lackluster showing in the group stage doomed the Swedes, causing them to miss out on a bye to the quarterfinals.
The result is a qualifying round showdown against Latvia, with the winner destined to take on Team USA in the quarterfinals at the Winter Olympics.
This wasn’t supposed to be Sweden’s path, the third favorite coming into the tournament, but there’s nothing they can do about it now.
Sweden vs. Latvia odds, prediction
The Swedes are dealing with some demons in the blue paint in this tournament. Filip Gustavsson struggled in the first two games, and then Jacob Markstrom was just mediocre against Slovakia, allowing a back-breaking goal late in the tilt that sent the Slovaks to the top of the group, and the Swedes into the qualifying round.
The goalies have caught a lot of flak from the Swedish press and fans, putting them under the spotlight as they head into a do-or-die showdown with Latvia on Tuesday.
If ever there was a team that could use a clean defensive effort, it would be Sweden. And if there was ever an opponent to have that kind of effort against, it would be Latvia.
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A lunch-pail team with a tireless work ethic, Latvia can be a thorn in the side, but the reality is that they just don’t have the offensive talent to put a scare into the juggernauts. They can force mistakes through forechecking and physicality, and they’ve got a couple of high-ceiling goaltenders, but Latvia’s only real path to success here is to play in a defensive posture, wait for counter-attacking opportunities, and hope that Sweden beats itself.
That is just what the doctor ordered for the Swedes.
Given the atmosphere around the team and how crucial it is for this group to give their goaltenders some confidence ahead of a potential clash with Team USA in the quarterfinals, I’m expecting a very stoic effort from the Swedes. One that puts an emphasis on playing a clean, mistake-free game, rather than just running rampant over the Latvians.
The Under 6.5 looks like a fine bet, but I’ll go price-hunting with a play on Sweden to win in a shutout.
The Play: Latvia Under 0.5 goals (+350, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.