Two things can be true at once.
The Canadian Women’s Hockey Team is a prohibitive favorite to make it to the gold medal game at the Winter Olympics. They’ve also been a bit of a disappointment.
Canada crushed Switzerland, Czechia and Finland by a combined score of 14-1, but the Canadians were dominated in their only true test of the preliminary round, a 5-0 defeat to the United States.
It was their seventh loss on the spin against their bitter rival, and they’ve been outscored, 35-11, in that span.
A highly anticipated rematch against the Yanks likely awaits in the final Thursday, but both teams need to get there first.
For Canada, that means taking care of business against Germany on Saturday.
Germany vs. Canada odds, prediction
Canada’s -10000 moneyline and 5.5-goal puckline tells you where this game is headed.
The Canadians may not be on the same level as the Americans, but they’re in another stratosphere compared to the teams that are making up the numbers in this tournament.
Women’s hockey is growing, which means the gap between the Davids and Goliaths will eventually narrow, but we’re not there just yet.
Germany came into the tournament with hopes of challenging Sweden for the top spot in Group B, but they were humbled by the Swedes, 4-1, in the curtain-raiser.
Sweden is a rising power in the sport, but they’re still nowhere near the level of Team USA or Canada, and that spells trouble for Germany now that it has to take a massive step up in weight class.
Where Germany can contend with Canada in this tournament is in goal.
Sandra Abstreiter hasn’t set the world alight in Milan, but she’s had shining moments in her collegiate career at Providence, and she was lights out in the 2024 IIHF World Championships with a .950 save percentage.
Abstreiter will need to find that form, and then some, if Germany is going to do the unthinkable. They’ll also need Laura Kluge, who is tied for the tournament lead with seven points in the group stage, to produce a blood-and-thunder show offensively.
Asking the Germans to win is unthinkable, and it’s a bridge too far for them to keep this close. But I do like their chances of keeping this within the six-goal spread.
Betting on the NHL?
Finland, Czechia, and Switzerland are all stronger teams than Germany, yet Canada didn’t run up an absurd score against any of them.
That raises the question of whether Saturday could follow a similar script, especially since Canada may have little incentive to keep pushing once it builds a comfortable lead.
We’ll take the plus-money on Germany +5.5 at bet365 Sportsbook, but also keep an eye on the in-play market and consider a bet on there to be no goals scored in the third period if Canada is comfortably ahead after 40 minutes.
The Play: Germany +5.5 (+105, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.