One of the great international rivalries in all sports will get renewed Tuesday (2:10 p.m. ET) when Team USA and Canada meet in the preliminary round of the Women’s Hockey Tournament at the Winter Olympics.
The two teams are a combined 5-0 entering the game, and they boast a plus-22 goal difference.
They entered the tournament as the runaway favorites to meet in the gold medal game, something they’ve done six of the seven times this competition has been held.
Team USA won the first Women’s Hockey Gold Medal back in 1998, followed by four straight for Canada (2002, 2006, 2010, and 2014).
The Americans broke the streak with a gold in 2018, but the Canadians took it right back in 2022.
The only time another country made it to the championship was in 2006, when Sweden upset Team USA in the semifinals before losing to Canada.
Women’s hockey: Team USA vs. Canada odds, prediction
This is the 193rd overall contest between the Americans and Canadians, and while Canada has the overall edge, 106-86, it’s the Stars and Stripes that have dominated this series recently.
Team USA has won six on the spin against its Northern Neighbors, outscoring the Canadians, 30-11, in the process.
The last meeting, which was a 4-1 victory for the Yanks to complete a 4-0 sweep in the 2025-26 Rivalry Series, came on Dec. 13.
With the lopsided recent results, it’s no wonder that Team USA was the odds-on favorite to win the Gold Medal in Milan.
This is a fun contest to handicap for a number of reasons.
For one, it’s hard to glean anything from what we’ve seen from these two teams in their first handful of games.
Team USA and Canada are so much better than the rest of the field that we won’t learn anything from blowout wins.
It’s also worth noting that, outside of bragging rights, the stakes are not that high for this game.
The winner of this contest will almost certainly be the No. 1 seed in the knockout stage, but the loser will head to the opposite side of the bracket at No. 2.
They will both be prohibitive favorites to make it to the finals.
There will be some folks who argue that this game is more important for Canada, given its current schneid against the Americans, but it’s best not to go too far down that road.
Given their current form, the Americans are the deserving favorites.
They’ve tilted this rivalry in their direction, and until this current crop of Canadians proves they’re on the same level, we’ll see bookmakers hang Team USA as the chalk.
Betting on the NHL?
That said, you do have to wonder if the betting market is overreacting too much to the recent results.
The Rivalry Series was a whitewash, but its spot on the schedule did complicate things a bit. The first two games came right before the new PWHL campaign opened up, and the next two contests took place a month later.
Those results may suggest otherwise, but I’d argue that the gap between these teams is still razor thin, and in what is essentially a game for bragging rights, you can see how the underdog would provide value.
That’s especially true in the U.S. betting market, where the action will almost certainly be lopsided on the Stars & Stripes. You’re going to be paying a premium on the Americans in this spot.
If you’re looking at this from purely an expected value perspective, Canada is the play, even with Marie-Philip Poulin questionable to play.
The Play: Canada moneyline (+140, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.