The NFL begins the divisional round — its Elite Eight — with the top seeds in each conference playing Saturday.
Such scheduling is deliberate and should be treated as significant.
The Broncos and Seahawks are the only teams that earned byes and thus enter the second weekend of the playoffs rested. Their opponents — the Bills and 49ers, respectively — each played on the East Coast on Sunday, meaning they have to endure cross-country travel and a short week.
Maybe these advantages were earned over the course of four months (in addition to the prospect of having an extra day to prepare for a home championship game should they advance).
Still, there are no guarantees. Since 2021-22, when the league began scheduling all No. 1 seeds on Saturday, those teams are 5-3 straight up but 3-5 against the spread.
SATURDAY
DENVER BRONCOS (-1) over Buffalo Bills | Under 46
Does this selection ultimately come down to whether you think this is finally the year Josh Allen lifts the Bills to the Super Bowl, with the path cleared of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs?
I’m not so sure about that. Allen is pure magic, and he’s already lifted the Bills out of a tough predicament in Jacksonville. He gives Buffalo a clear edge at quarterback over Bo Nix, and sometimes that’s all you need to know in a playoff game. Buffalo also crushed Denver 31-7 in last year’s wild-card round at Orchard Park.
Still, this feels like a tall order, even for the great Allen. He got banged up in multiple places, and now he’s down to three healthy wide receivers against a Denver defense that led the NFL in sacks (68) and boasts one of the top secondaries in the league.
Beyond placing WRs Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers on IR, the Bills list six starters as questionable, while the rested Broncos are at near-full health. These things figure to matter at high altitude with Buffalo on a short week.
Broncos 23-20.
San Francisco 49ers (+7) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS | Under 45
These teams met just two weeks ago in Santa Clara, Calif., with the NFC West and conference top seed on the line. The Seahawks won that game by double digits (13-3), and the margin probably should have been a lot higher considering Seattle’s dominance in yardage (361-173), first downs (23-9), and time of possession (37-plus minutes vs. 22-plus).
So, what’s changed in 14 days? Well, the 49ers traveled to Philadelphia and knocked off the defending Super Bowl champs in their house. That’s something. Yes, they lost George Kittle in that game, but he tore his Achilles in the first quarter, and they still found a way.
The concern for those who’d prefer to back the Seahawks is whether Sam Darnold will turn into a playoff pumpkin again. In his one postseason start, last year with the Vikings, he was sacked nine times in a 27-9 loss to the Rams. That result is one of the reasons he’s now a Seahawk. He is also questionable with a new oblique issue, but he said Thursday that he expects to play.
With Nick Bosa and Fred Warner gone, the 49ers don’t have the pass rush to harass Darnold, but that doesn’t mean Robert Saleh can’t slow him down. The Seahawks scored 13 points in each of two games against the 49ers this season, including San Francisco’s 17-13 victory at Seattle in Week 1. Darnold threw neither a touchdown pass nor an interception in either game.
The 49ers offense hits just enough big plays downfield to make me believe they can play some of this game from ahead, which would make the full-touchdown spread loom large.
Seahawks 20-17.
SUNDAY
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3) over Houston Texans | Under 40.5
This is the first game of the weekend in which weather figures to play a role. The forecast for late afternoon in Foxborough, Mass., is around 20 with winds 14-29 mph and a RealFeel in single digits.
Yes, the Texans beat the Steelers in 30-degree temperatures Monday night — crushed them, actually, thanks in part to two defensive touchdowns. But Mother Nature will crank up a little extra for this Texas team to deal with on Route 1.
The Texans head north with WR Nico Collins still in concussion protocol as of midweek and three starting offensive linemen on the injury report. In a game that figures to be a slugfest in the trenches, that could be a factor.
And the big chill can’t be welcomed by C.J. Stroud — who lost two fumbles, threw an interception, and had two other near-turnovers in Pittsburgh. He’s a bit of a tightrope-walker while Drake Maye seems the safer option. He completed 72 percent of his passes with just eight interceptions. Maye also added to the Patriots’ attack with 66 yards rushing last week against the Chargers, while Stroud has run for a total of 32 yards in his past eight games.
Patriots 24-13.
CHICAGO BEARS (+3.5) over Los Angeles Rams | Under 48.5
The kickoff forecast for Soldier Field is a wind chill of 5 degrees with a 20 percent chance of snow and winds from 12-23 mph. That’s if they get lucky and the even colder weather expected Monday doesn’t arrive earlier.
According to windycitygridiron.com, Bears DB Kevin Byard said, “I think Ben [Johnson, coach] has been doing a good job of making us practice in this cold weather with no heat. No heaters on the field, which has been a complaint … for a lot of guys. But I think … in this time of year … it actually might be good that we didn’t have any heaters because our bodies are going to be fully acclimated to this weather.”
Betting on the NFL?
The Rams are practicing at home this week in 80-degree Los Angeles. Matthew Stafford has a sprained index finger on his throwing hand, which could get worse in the conditions, especially if the Bears defense can put some hits on him.
My worry is that the Bears have one of the worst defenses in the playoffs. Am I putting too much faith in the weather to slow down Stafford and Puka Nacua?
Caleb Williams has overcome this with some magical second-half comebacks. This selection is a hope, that the Bears either play a complete game or at least don’t let it get too far off the rails early.
Rams 24-23.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Patriots (Locks 7-12 in 2025-26).
LAST WEEK: 6-6 (4-2 sides, 2-4 Over/Unders).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back to 1994. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.