Pollster Sir John Curtice warned that Labour is in “severe trouble” in Wales after a humiliating by-election defeat. Sir Keir Starmer’s party trailed behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK to come third in Caerphilly in the battle for the Welsh Parliament seat.
The polling expert said it is the “biggest drop Labour has ever suffered in a by-election in Wales”. Sir John told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “It does suggest that Plaid are now well placed to provide Wales with its next first minister.
“Reform will be disappointed at coming second with 36% but I don’t think we should run away with the idea that this, in any way, suggests that Nigel Farage’s bubble is burst.”
Sir John said Reform UK’s result is “pretty consistent” with how Nigel Farage’s insurgent party has been polling generally.
“It’s just that it isn’t going to be strong enough to win an election if you’re facing a strong alternative, which in this case was Plaid, whereas of course in the county council elections earlier this year that wasn’t the case.”
The loss of the constituency is a bitter blow for Labour, which had held the seat since the Senedd was first established in 1999.
Plaid won the by-election with 47%, while Reform took 36% and Labour was on 11%.
First Minister Eluned Morgan said the by-election took place “in the toughest of circumstances and in the midst of difficult headwinds nationally”.
She added: “Welsh Labour has heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly that the need to feel change in people’s lives has not been quick enough.
“We take our share of the responsibility for this result. We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will be come back stronger.”
Cabinet Office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds admitted Labour has a “very tough fight” on its hands in the Senedd elections next May.
He todl Times Radio: “I certainly accept, and the First Minister – Eluned Morgan – has accepted, that we have a very tough fight on our hands for next May.”
He said Labour’s loss was “disappointing” and pointed to a “fractured political landscape” in the UK.
“We will listen to the thousands of conversations that we had in Caerphilly about speeding up the pace of change.”