A shocking new MRP poll has laid bare the anger felt towards the two main British political parties. According to new analysis, Reform UK could be on course to win 445 seats, with the Labour Party reduced to 73 and the Conservatives just seven.
If that came to fruition, Nigel Farage would become the British Prime Minister with a landslide victory, but things might not be that straight forward. Around a third of 7,449 British adults said they would vote tactically and opt for the Conservatives in order to block Reform UK from winning seats. Tactical voting takes place when a voter chooses a candidate whom they wouldn’t normally support, in order to prevent another candidate from winning.
Kevin Craig, CEO of PLMR, the company who conducted the polling, said: “This poll shows a remarkable fall from grace for the Conservative Party, and exposes where voter priorities lie.
“The electorate is demanding action on the economy first and foremost, with concerns around immigration and the NHS still present, and traditional party loyalties are under unprecedented pressure.”
The cost of living was given as the biggest issues dictating who the electorate vote, with 59% of people listing it as their primary driver in the polling conducted on behalf of the Daily Mail.
Immigration and border control was a top issue for 47% of people whilst the state of the NHS was a concern for 44% of those asked.
The polling, conducted before conference party season, shines a light on the precarious position of many of the UK’s most powerful politicians, with more than a dozen cabinet and shadow cabinet members predicted to lose their seats.
Rachel Reeves, Ed Miliband and Bridget Phillipson are amongst those expected to lose their seats to Reform UK, as are Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick from the Tory front bench.
Wes Streeting and Yvette Cooper’s constituencies are amongst the 13 seats projected to be won by Jeremy Corbyn’s fledgling Your Party.
The MRP poll, multilevel regression and post-stratification, is seen as a more accurate way of projecting future election outcomes.
However with no election scheduled until 2029, there remains a significant period of time in which the fortunes of political parties and politicians could change.
Craig added: There is a long way to go until 2029 and the message is clear: voters want the weekly shop to cost less.
“It’s time to forget the slogans and the clever language. Instead, the Government must keep calm and focus on delivering more money into working people’s pockets to shore up support ahead of the next election.”