Keir Starmer is likely to resign next year, according to the betting markets. The Prime Minister has faced a series of disasters since winning last year’s general election, including the attempt to limit winter fuel payments for pensioners and more than 34,400 small boat crossings so far in 2025. Now, bookmakers say the odds have shortened on Sir Keir quitting in 2026.
The odds are 5/4 on the Prime Minister leaving Number 10 next year, 4/1 on 2027 and 6/1 on 2028. You can get odds of 11/2 on the PM quitting this year. The favourite to replace Sir Keir is Andy Burnham, with odds of 3/1 that he will be the next Labour leader.
And the person seen as most likely to replace Rachel Reeves as Chancellor is Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden, with odds of 10/11.
Here’s who will replace Keir Starmer, with odds from Free Bets Casino.
Name Odds Implied Probability
Andy Burnham 3/1 25.0%
Wes Streeting 11/2 15.4%
Shabana Mahmood 9/1 10.0%
Yvette Cooper 10/1 9.1%
Darren Jones 14/1 6.7%
Angela Rayner 14/1 6.7%
David Lammy 16/1 5.9%
Bridget Phillipson 16/1 5.9%
Lucy Powell 16/1 5.9%
Pat McFadden 20/1 4.8%
Rachel Reeves 20/1 4.8%
John Heatley 20/1 4.8%
Sadiq Khan 20/1 4.8%
Ed Miliband 25/1 3.8%
Others 33/1+ ≤2.9%
Labour is in the middle of a bad-tempered deputy leadership election, and candidate Bridget Phillipson has warned that voting for her rival Lucy Powell risks “energising our opponents”, as ballots opened on Wednesday for members and affiliates.
Education Secretary Ms Phillipson and former Commons leader Ms Powell are vying to replace Angela Rayner after her resignation over her tax affairs, with the result to be announced on October 25.
Ms Powell, who was sacked from the Cabinet in Sir Keir Starmer’s recent reshuffle, said Labour “can’t sugarcoat the fact that things aren’t going well” in Government.
She is expected to garner votes from members who want to see a change in direction from Downing Street.
But Ms Phillipson warned of the risks posed by division.
In a video posted on X, the Cabinet minister said: “Make no mistake, change is on the ballot, but it’s the kind of change that you get to choose – whether it’s me at the Cabinet table pushing for more of the brilliant Labour things that you all want to see, or the risk that comes of disunity, of shouting from the sidelines and energising our opponents.
“With a seat at the Cabinet table, I’ll put Labour’s heart and soul into Government, and I’ll make sure that I deliver for working people, unite our party and secure that second-term Labour Government that we all want to see.”
Ms Phillipson has the backing of unions including GMB and Unison, as well as former home secretary Alan Johnson, while Ms Powell has the support of Lord Kinnock – who led the party from 1983 to 1992.
Ms Powell, speaking at a rally with members in east London on Tuesday, said the party needs to start telling “a stronger story about the purpose of the Labour Government”.
She said: “I’m proud of Labour’s achievements, but we need to acknowledge that mistakes have been made. We can’t sugarcoat the fact that things aren’t going well. We have ceded the political megaphone to our opponents instead of setting the agenda ourselves. I want to help Labour wrest it back.”
Ms Powell said Labour is in the “fight of our lives” and needs to start listening to broader voices or risk “group-think” setting in. She added: “Politics has become more fractured and divided, we’re losing support to both sides. Trying to ‘out-Reform’ Reform doesn’t work.”
Ms Phillipson, writing in The Mirror, said it was important for the party to stay united and not “turn in on ourselves at this crucial moment” which would be welcomed by Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK. She also pledged to make reducing child poverty the “moral mission” of the Government, guaranteeing it would fall in this Parliament.
She said: “Like Angela Rayner and John Prescott, I’m going to give members a voice from the Cabinet table, not throw rocks from the outside. As deputy leader I want to unite our party, deliver change for working people and beat Reform – and deliver the second Labour term our children deserve.”