Reform UK has hit a new high in the polls, as the Tory conference shows no sign of turning the party’s fortunes around. More in Common’s new poll, released on Wednesday, shows Reform up to a new high of 33%, gaining three points in just over a week.
Labour is static on 20% and the Tories are down one point to just 19%. The Lib Dems, Greens and SNP are stationary on 14%, 8% and 3% respectively. More in Common also polled voters for their perception of party leaders, and found that both Sir Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch have sunk to new lows.
Sir Keir has reached a new approval rating of -49, while Mrs Badenoch has also sunk to -32.
More in Commons’s Luke Tryl warned that this suggests her speech on Wednesday “will be a key moment to try and turn things around”.
In September, YouGov published its first MRP mega poll since June, confirming that Nigel Farage is on course to be Britain’s next prime minister. MRP polls are much more accurate than other polls, with a sample size of 13,000 compared to the usual 2,000.
It allows the pollster to dig into the details and make accurate seat-by-seat forecasts. On Wednesday, YouGov forecast that Mr Farage is on course to be prime minister, though he could still fall short of an overall majority. The reputable pollster reported that Reform would win 311 seats if the election were called now, just 14 shy of an overall majority.
This is a big improvement since its last MRP poll three months ago, when Mr Farage was set to fall 55 seats short of a majority.
By contrast, Labour has fallen back further, and would now win just 144 seats, 34 seats fewer than YouGov forecast in its last MRP.
The Tories, despite further slides in the polls, would win 45, almost exactly the same as forecast in the summer.
The Lib Dems have also remained nearly static, dropping from an expected 81 seats to 78.
The SNP, Greens and Plaid would win 37, seven, and six seats respectively.