Sir Keir Starmer’s party’s traditional stronghold in south east Wales could pivot to support Reform UK instead, polling and residents have suggested. Caerphilly has been a safe Labour seat since 1918 but growing disillusionment with the Prime Minister has left some lifelong supporters looking elsewhere, with their switching allegiance lining up with recent polls showing Reform’s growing influence in the region. “I grew up in this town as a Labour supporter,” teacher Andrew O’Shea, 65, said. “They were the party for the working class but now they’ve lost themselves. Starmer is out of his depth.”
“I want somebody to take control of the borders,” he told The Sun. “Like thousands in this town, I’m going to protest-vote Reform because we’re tired of Labour getting it so wrong.” It comes after bombshell polls put Nigel Farage’s right-wing party within touching distance of winning the largest number of seats at the 2026 Senedd election, with Labour trailing behind in third place.
A major, more concrete indicator of the changing political landscape in Wales could come in the form of the Caerphilly by-election results after residents head to the polls on October 23.
Even undecided voters appear reluctant to lend their vote to Mr Starmer’s party amid frustrations over immigration and the economy – a stark contrast to Labour’s historic prominence in Wales, having led every devolved government since 1999.
“Starmer needs to get his act together,” Gillian Champion, 64, who admitted she has yet to decide who to back in the upcoming vote, said. “They say they’ve got no money, but they’re giving money to people who come over on the boats.”
Reform’s local candidate Llyr Powell himself came from a Labour-voting household. “I’m the great-grandson and grandson of miners,” he said. “My mother was a nurse and voted Labour.”
But the Labour his forebearers backed without a thought “doesn’t resemble” the party standing today, the 30-year-old insisted. “Labour has abandoned its core supporters,” he said.
Reform’s opponents have attempted to stamp out support for the party by turning up the heat on its former Welsh leader’s links to Russia. Nathan Gill, who stood down in 2021, pleaded guilty to taking cash in return for making pro-Russian statements in the European parliament as far back as 2018 last month.
Mr Powell condemned his ex-boss and said he had no knowledge of his activities. “Reform has 250,000 members,” he added. “What you’re talking about is one individual. People should judge me for the person I am.”
Mr Farage’s party has yet to gain a lead on nationalist Welsh party Plaid Cymru in the polls, although YouGov findings published last month put Reform just one percentage point behind in the neck-and-neck race.
It’s a threat that could have repercussions on Labour’s wider UK hold in the next general election, as First Minister Eluned Morgan acknowledged and attempted to combat at the party conference in late September.
“The polls are not looking good,” she told members in Liverpool. “People are angry. Disillusioned. Reform blames foreigners, Plaid blames Westminster. Divisive nationalism in different forms. Different poison, same bottle. Unlike the peddlers of easy answers, Welsh Labour doesn’t just talk, we deliver.”