Iran’s political elite is growing increasingly alarmed over the health and status of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, after weeks of near-total silence from his office and a marked drop in public appearances. According to senior Iranians diplomats, “the vast majority” of senior officials are now “completely out of touch” with Khamenei, with once-routine channels of communication narrowed or closed altogether.
“Even senior officials of the country can hardly contact his office,” said one. “Almost no guidance has been issued by him, and the diplomatic apparatus is operating almost independently.”
That breakdown in communication represents a dramatic shift in Iran’s governing structure.
For decades, Khamenei has acted as the Islamic Republic’s central authority, issuing instructions across all branches of government.
But since the outbreak of war between Israel and Hezbollah in June – and more noticeably in the weeks that followed – those lines have gone quiet.
“The claims published in Iran broadly correspond with the significant decrease in the frequency of public appearances we’ve seen from Khamenei,” said Megan Sutcliffe, a regional expert with the Sibylline strategic risk group.
“The fact that multiple diplomats weren’t briefed by his office before the UN General Assembly suggests a clear breakdown in communication.”
In Khamenei’s absence, political jockeying has intensified behind the scenes.
Two names have emerged with growing prominence: Ali Larijani, the former speaker of parliament, and Mohammad Mokhber, the former first vice president and briefly interim president after Ebrahim Raisi’s death.
Both Larijani and Mokhber maintain rare access to Khamenei’s inner circle and are manoeuvring to influence the coming transition.
“Larijani is in contact with different groups – reformists, IRGC commanders, and grand ayatollahs,” one diplomat told IranWire.
“He wants to prepare the country for the post-Khamenei period across diplomatic, military, and economic fronts.”
Larijani, a pragmatist with roots in both the regime and its reformist critics, has a complicated past.
In the 1990s, as head of state broadcasting, he defended the hardline Hoviat programme which accused Iranian intellectuals of working with the West.
His family once dominated Iran’s power structure, with his brothers Sadegh and Mohammad Javad holding top roles in the judiciary and foreign policy.
But Larijani faces strong resistance, particularly from Mokhber, a relative newcomer with hardline credentials and close ties to the Raisi bloc.
“Mokhber is more of a principlist,” said Sutcliffe.
“He’s not ultra-hardline but is viewed as a regime loyalist. His main political activity now appears to be undermining Larijani’s credibility -and that’s not hard, given how unpopular the Larijani family has become.”
Neither man is a cleric, so neither is seen as a likely Supreme Leader himself.
Instead, both are positioning themselves to influence the selection of Khamenei’s successor, most likely through their roles in the Guardian and Expediency Councils.
“The succession process will involve bureaucratic steps and likely a short mourning period,” Sutcliffe explained.
“But those two weeks could be critical. We’re likely to see jostling for influence between figures like Larijani and Mokhber – not to become Supreme Leader, but to shape what comes next.”
Iran’s current president, Masoud Pezeshkian, is not expected to play a significant role in that process.
The IRGC is likely to be the kingmaker. “Any successor will need the Guards’ backing – both for political legitimacy and operational control,” Sutcliffe said.
“Unless that structure fractures, we won’t see immediate change.”
Still, the succession could become unstable if factional divisions widen amid worsening economic conditions and collapsing public trust.
For now, the lack of transparency fuels only uncertainty.
“Iran’s political elite long assumed succession would be tightly choreographed,” said the diplomat.
“But the silence from Khamenei’s office has thrown everything into doubt.”giannangeli iran