Sir Keir Starmer is on course to become the first Labour leader to lose an election in Wales for over 100 years, new polling suggests. The YouGov poll on voting intention for the Welsh Parliament puts Labour in third place behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.
Nationalist party Plaid Cymru and Nigel Farage’s insurgent party are neck-and-neck on 30% and 29% respectively, while Labour is third on 14%. Labour is just two points behind the Conservatives who take 11%, while the Lib Dems and Greens are both on 6% in the poll of 1,232 people carried out from September 4-10.
The poll for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University suggests Labour is set to face a drubbing at next May’s Senedd elections.
The party has won the most seats in Wales at general elections since 1922 and every Welsh Parliament election since 1999.
It is the latest blow to the Prime Minister amid claims he could be replaced if the 2026 elections in Scotland, Wales and large parts of England go badly.
Sir Keir is facing a challenging week amid the fallout from the sacking of Lord Mandelson, frustrations from MPs and the state visit of US President Donald Trump.
Labour left-winger Richard Burgon this week said it was “inevitable” the Prime Minister would be toppled if May’s elections are a bloodbath.
But skills minister and former home secretary Baroness Jacqui Smith yesterday defended Sir Keir, telling BBC Breakfast: “Richard Burgon has never supported this Prime Minister.
“He actually had the whip removed from him for a period of time because of his failure to support the Government, so the fact that he now thinks the Prime Minister should go is not actually new news.”
