Overnight on Tuesday, 19 Russian Shahed attack drones entered Polish airspace. NATO aircraft responded by shooting down four of them. But this was no accident triggered by Ukrainian jamming, causing the machines to lose their way and stray over the border, as Russia’s ally Belarus has claimed. When their guidance signals are attacked, drones generally fall out of the sky. Single drones have been aimed before at Poland, but never in this quantity. Make no mistake, this was a test of NATO reactions that took place while Vladimir Putin feels most empowered. He has been feted at recent summits by both America’s Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping and the aerial arrivals took place when the world is distracted by events elsewhere.
America, the Middle Eastern nations and their allies were composing their thoughts and reactions to Israel’s attacks on Hamas leaders in Qatar. France is in turmoil with the fall of another prime minister and the threat of national strikes. Germany is looking inward as her economy falters. Other NATO states, such as Britain, Spain, Italy and Greece, are wrapped up in very real domestic crises over migration.
Putin sees his geopolitical stars aligning to increase tensions and fears of war throughout central and western Europe. He hopes this will divide support amongst Ukraine’s allies, and cause them to send less money and fewer supplies to Kyiv.
The cost to Russia is minimal, for Moscow sent 400 other drones and missiles against targets throughout Ukraine last night, and has dispatched as many as 800 on other evenings. Not all are armed. Their job is to swamp and breach Ukraine’s ‘drone wall’ defences of nets, cannon, aircraft and other drones. Typically, about 5% break through.
A government building in Kyiv was struck for the first time three days ago. This caused little damage but was a symbolic assault on the heart of Zelensky’s democracy. It was an important escalation, as were the 19 drones sent to Poland last night.
As a result, Poland has invoked NATO’s Article Four which states that members “will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any is threatened”.
Not only strong words will be needed in response, but decisive air defence preparations. Only four Russian drones were destroyed. They should all have been eliminated, for the Russians are assessing NATO reactions and will certainly return. And all the time the Russian dictator is watching our reactions and calculating.
Peter Caddick-Adams is a defence analyst and military historian. His latest book is Sand & Steel: A New History of D-Day (Cornerstone, £16.99)