History has a nasty habit of repeating itself. In September 1939, Hitler invaded Poland, and the world became embroiled in the bloodiest conflict mankind has ever known. Eighty-six years later, it looks like another tyrant might have Poland in his crosshairs. When Russian drones flooded Polish airspace overnight alarm bells rang in western capitals. The big question was whether it was a mistake or a deliberate test of NATO’s resolve. Polish sources tell us that 19 Russian drones violated their airspace, of which “up to four” were shot down by Polish and NATO aircraft, the first time in modern times that Russian aerial vehicles have been downed in Poland.
If a mistake, then NATO can brush it off as such while complaining bitterly to Russia. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has already called for an Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty consultation. That Article says “The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.”
If the attack was deliberate then it presents a much more serious proposition and could trigger Article 5 of the same Treaty, usually translated as “and attack against one member will be regarded as an attack against all”. Poland isn’t Ukraine.
It’s not some grey zone on the map. It’s a fully signed-up NATO member, with all the protections that supposedly guarantees. So Russia would find itself fighting against the whole of NATO, something Putin wants to avoid if he possibly can.
But it does look as if Putin is daring NATO to prove it’s more than just hot air. Does NATO really mean it will intervene? Will Trump enter the fray if one of the USA’s allies is attacked in this manner?
Putin clearly doubts it. Like the bully in the playground, he’s probing, pushing, seeing how far he can go without serious pushback. He has seen the west dither over its support for Ukraine – months of agonising debates before tanks, missiles and jets were drip-fed into the fight, too little and too late, just sufficient for Kyiv not to fold but not enough for it to win.
Time and again he has witnessed red lines drawn, only to be erased. Now he wants to know: will NATO actually defend its members, or will it fold like a pack of cards?
And the choice of Poland would be no accident. Warsaw has been Kyiv’s staunchest supporter, the hub through which western weapons flow, and the country that has carried more than its fair share of the refugee burden. Hitting Poland would be a message from Moscow: back off, or you’ll get more of this.
It is also a pretty clear message to Washington. With Donald Trump enjoying a turbulent second term in the White House, Putin is flexing his muscles. In the past Trump has called NATO “obsolete”, questioned America’s commitments, and hinted he’d let freeloading allies fend for themselves unless they pull their weight.
So what better way to show the world that NATO is divided and weak than to take a swing at Poland and watch the west squirm?
So the stakes are pretty high. If NATO does nothing, its credibility lies in ruins. What good is Article 5 if it only exists on paper? If Poland can be hit without consequence and this is what is now being tested, deliberately or no – then the Baltics could be next.
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania – all frontline states, all in Putin’s sights. He knows the history books too. He knows Poland was the first domino to fall in 1939. Perhaps he’s betting that it could happen again.
So NATO has a choice. It can respond with strength – beefing up Poland’s air defences, sending more troops east, flooding the skies with allied aircraft, and warning Moscow in no uncertain terms that next time, there will be a price to pay. Or it can mumble about “de-escalation” and “dialogue” and watch Putin take the message that the alliance is finished.
Will the organisation in which I spent my entire military career prove to have its foundations built on sand? Is it nothing more than a paper tiger?
This could well be the moment of truth. Poland has been the line in the sand before. In 1939, when Britain and France failed to act decisively, the result was catastrophe. Will we make the same mistake again?
Because if NATO won’t defend Poland, it won’t defend anyone. And if it won’t defend anyone, then Putin has already won.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk