Vladimir Putin’s Russia has been repeatedly flagged by experts as a potential threat to NATO countries (Image: Gavriil Grigorov/AP/REX/Shutterstock)
Vladimir Putin’s Russia has been repeatedly flagged by experts as a potential threat to NATO countries, with two European nations now being identified as particularly vulnerable.
Several warning signs have been pointed out, hinting at possible locations for a future Russian military assault that could potentially ignite World War Three. These warnings come from a variety of sources including NATO and defence officials, military analysts, and others.
NATO chief Mark Rutte warned in June that Russia might be prepared to use force against the alliance within the next five years. So, where might Putin strike and what are the indicators? The news comes as a baby was dead as Putin shows true colours with 805-drone barrage.
Potential Plan of Attack by Putin
The Baltic states have frequently been mentioned as a possible springboard for a Russian invasion of NATO territory. There is apprehension that a future peace agreement in the Ukraine war, which could allow Russia to retain control of occupied eastern Ukraine, would embolden Putin’s forces and prompt an advance on former Soviet Union members, reports the Mirror.
Analysts believe the Baltic states are most at risk, with Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia providing Russia with increased sea access and thus potentially posing a threat to the Nordic countries, Poland, and Germany.
According to ex-intelligence officer Philip Ingram, one area could be ripe for an attack. Ingram referred to the Suwalki Gap, dubbed ‘NATO’s Achilles heel’.
The corridor spanning roughly 60 miles between Lithuania and Poland would provide the most direct path for Russian troops advancing from Kremlin-allied Belarus to reach the Russian territory of Kaliningrad.
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Seizing control of this corridor could potentially isolate the Baltic nations from their Western partners.
“We’re seeing increased Russian military presence in Kaliningrad and Belarus, we’re seeing snap military drills and unusual troop movements,” Ingram told The Sun’s Battle Lines Exposed series.
He noted there are also indicators of “hybrid warfare” ranging from GPS interference to “little green men… fermenting unrest amongst the Russian speaking minorities.”
Reports suggest that defence experts in the region are examining methods to protect this stretch and other vulnerable areas across the Baltic states, according to Politico.
This encompasses so-called “bog-based defence”, where Europe’s waterlogged peatlands could serve as barriers against advancing forces.
However, thus far only Lithuania’s environment ministry has confirmed that restoring wetlands for defensive purposes remains “under discussion”.
Yet not all specialists agree about the Suwalki Gap’s strategic weakness.
In 2022, Alexander Lanoszka, assistant Professor of International Relations at the University of Waterloo, told Chatham House that “its real strategic value is limited”.
Should NATO face invasion, Russia would likely deploy so-called ‘hybrid warfare’ tactics as a precursor to any assault. (Image: GOOGLE)
How Ukraine invasion unfolded
Prior to Putin’s comprehensive assault on Ukraine in February 2022, there was a substantial concentration of forces along Ukraine’s frontier.
A comparable military build-up would signal Moscow’s intention to launch an offensive. Months before Russia launched its invasion, there were already concerns being raised.
Intelligence played a crucial role. Earlier in February that year, then US President Joe Biden warned of a distinct possibility of a Russian invasion and advised Americans to leave Ukraine.
In the run-up to its invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin made a number of false claims as part of its propaganda campaign. One such claim was that people in Ukraine’s Donbas region needed saving from what Putin labelled a “genocide”.
However, there is no evidence to support any genocide committed by Ukraine in the Donbas.
Moscow also claimed that Ukraine needed to be “de-nazified”. Yet, when the invasion was initiated, the far right held a mere one percent of the seats in Ukraine’s parliament.
Rescue personnel working to extinguish a fire at the Ukrainian government building in Kyiv (Image: Official Telegram channel of Ukr)
One recurring grievance voiced by Russia, which could potentially serve as a pretext for an attack on NATO, is the expansion of the alliance to its borders. Every member state that has joined since 1990, except Finland and Sweden, was either a member of the Warsaw Pact, a former Soviet Baltic state or part of the former Yugoslavia.
Russian assertions that it was promised in 1990 that this would not happen are, at best, disputed. NATO refers to it as a “myth”.
“This wasn’t Nato trying to enlarge, this was countries hammering on the door saying let us in,” Tomas Ries, associate professor at the Swedish national defence college, told The Guardian.
Key sign invasion imminent
Should NATO face invasion, Russia would likely deploy so-called ‘hybrid warfare’ tactics as a precursor to any assault.
This strategy could encompass intensified strikes against vital infrastructure, including underwater sea cables.
During June testimony to the Joint Committee on National Security Strategy, armed forces minister Luke Pollard MP identified the UK’s approximately 60 undersea cables as a “target”.
“This was not really spoken about a few decades ago, it is now a regular topic of conversation about the overall threat,” Mr Pollard remarked regarding the cables responsible for 99% of data transmission for worldwide communications, internet connectivity and financial dealings.
Servicemen take part in an amphibious landing exercise held by naval infantry units of the Russian Baltic and Northern Fleets (Image: Vitaly Nevar/TASS)
Britain’s soft belly
Former Conservative defence secretary Grant Shapps told Politico in May that underwater infrastructure – encompassing cables alongside gas pipelines and power lines – represents the “soft belly of British security”.
On June 25, Mr Pollard additionally cautioned that Russian naval vessels are “increasingly sailing through the English Channel”.
He declared: “I have every confidence, as should the British public, that our Royal Navy will continue to defend our waters and keep our undersea cables safe.”
Also during June, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned that Russia presents a direct menace to the European Union through sabotage operations and cyber assaults.
She outlined a catalogue of Russian airspace breaches, provocative military drills, and strikes on energy networks, pipelines and underwater cables. Earlier this year, in January, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte expressed concerns over suspected deliberate damage to cables in the Baltic Sea.
Since 2023, at least 11 have been damaged. While damage to cables is common, the increased frequency of incidents has sparked concern.
Mr Rutte did not point fingers at Russia, but he did highlight the risks of “hybrid warfare”. This refers to actions taken with the aim of destabilising countries through means such as assassinations or attacks on infrastructure.