Voters are flocking to Reform UK because they have lost faith in the UK’s institutions. Support for Nigel Farage’s party is driven by a breakdown in trust for bodies such as the police, the courts and NHS, a study by think tank Onward found. The survey found 47% of Conservative voters and 63% of Labour voters have faith in the criminal justice system, but just 31% of those who said they will support Reform at the next election. And the BBC is trusted by 50% of Conservative voters as well as 71% of Labour voters, but just 23% of those backing Reform.
The findings are a stark warning for other parties according to Reform director Sir Simon Clarke, a former Conservative cabinet minister. He said: “Voters up and down the country are turning to Reform. And I don’t blame them.” But he insisted: “When trust in institutions collapses, it creates a vacuum – and into that vacuum rush movements like Reform. They are the latest in a long line of protest parties that surge on discontent but will inevitably stumble in power.”
A majority of Reform voters, 56%, have faith in the monarchy but this is still lower than the 72% of Tories and 61% of Labour supporters who said the same.
Nicholas Stephenson, Co-Author of the Report, said: “The data shows a profound divergence in how different groups of voters view institutions that are meant to be shared and unifying.
“The NHS and the military still command broad support, but other institutions – particularly the Criminal Justice System and the BBC – face serious trust deficits. Rebuilding confidence will be vital to political stability.”
A separate study found Reform UK may be on the brink of its greatest electoral breakthrough yet with the largest study of its kind finding support for Nigel Farage’s party could top 40%.
Sir Keir Starmer was able to deliver Labour’s landslide victory with the support of just 33.7% of voters last year – but new research has found 42% of Britons who are likely to vote would consider backing Reform in a general election.
It now leads “among pub garden enthusiasts, Wimbledon watchers and Britons who like fish and chips”, pollsters said.
The findings come as Mr Farage and his supporters converge in Birmingham for the biggest Reform conference yet.
A study by More in Common and UK in a Changing Europe shows how Reform UK is now commanding “mainstream” support. Researchers polled 3,000 Reform supporters and a further 2,000 people who would consider backing the party, as well as holding focus groups. They found Reform supporters “increasingly look like the average Briton” and are “roughly as likely as the wider public to support gay marriage and access to abortion”.
The gender gap in Reform’s support has also narrowed. At the election “around 1.4 men voted Reform for every woman”. This has shrunk to 1.2 men for every woman.
And while fewer than one in 10 of the country’s 18 to 24-year-olds support the Conservatives, “Reform’s vote share remains above 20% among every age group”.