Vladimi Pu (Image: AFP via Getty Images)
Donald Trump’s prospective meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin could backfire and escalate the Ukraine conflict if not carefully planned, a senior defence analyst has warned. The White House has confirmed that no meeting has yet been scheduled, nor has a location been selected, but officials say Mr Trump is open to a summit with both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
And Jennifer Kavanagh, Senior Fellow and Director of Military Analysis at US-based think tank Defense Priorities, said that while such a head-to-head could offer diplomatic progress, it also carried serious risks without proper groundwork. Not least owing to the US President’s “impulsive” nature.
She told Express.co.uk: “A potential bilateral meeting between President Trump and President Putin could have significant benefits, if proper preparation happens beforehand. It will be important that working-level meetings are held in advance between Mr Trump’s team and Mr Putin’s team to discuss possible topics and deliverables that could come from the leader summit.”
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If it goes ahead, the meeting would be the first between US President Mr Trump and Putin since the former returned to the White House in January, and could mark a pivotal moment in efforts to end the war in Ukraine, now entering its fourth year.
Ms Kavanagh said: “For example, the two teams might hash out the details of a limited ceasefire on long-range air attacks on civilian or energy targets in Ukraine or discuss broader US-Russia security issues such as the locations of US forces in Europe. They might discuss each side’s red lines in a future settlement or areas for compromise.”
She added: “Similar discussions with Mr Zelensky’s team would help Russia and Ukraine make progress toward ending their war and clarify what types of support the United States might offer Ukraine in the future.”
Mr Trump told reporters on Wednesday that “there’s a very good prospect” of a meeting with Putin and Mr Zelensky but declined to offer further details. Meanwhile, his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, met with Putin in Moscow earlier this week. The Kremlin said the meeting lasted three hours and described the talks as “constructive”.
Donald Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky argue in the Oval Office in February (Image: AFP via Getty Images)
Nevertheless, Ms Kavanagh cautioned that careful planning is essential before any leader-level talks are held, explaining: “With this type of preparation beforehand, a bilateral meeting with Putin or a trilateral meeting that includes Zelensky could be a productive way to push forward progress toward a settlement, even if all issues are not resolved.”
However, with images of Mr Trump berating Mr Zelensky in White House earlier this year, she also acknowledged that rushing the process could be disastrous.
She said: “Realistically, however, this type of advance work will take time. The risk is that Mr Trump is impulsive and impatient and holds the meeting too soon.
“This could magnify disagreements, and end up making the situation worse, by causing a collapse of US-Russia diplomacy and a halt to US efforts to end the war.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (Image: AFP via Getty Images)
“At the very least, a meeting held too soon might end up being a waste of time, contributing to Trump’s general frustration with Putin and the war. This too would harm efforts at war termination.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio also sought to lower expectations, telling Fox Business: “A lot has to happen before that can occur.” He added that talks with European allies and Ukraine were ongoing.
The diplomatic efforts come amid rising tensions. Mr Trump has set a deadline for Moscow to move toward peace or face severe economic penalties, including tariffs on nations that continue buying Russian oil.
Mr Zelensky said on Wednesday evening that he had spoken to Mr Trump following Witkoff’s visit to Moscow and that European leaders were also involved in the call.
He stressed that it “seems that Russia is now more inclined to agree to a ceasefire” while warning that the West must not be deceived.
He explained: “It is important to make sure Russia does not deceive us or the United States when it comes to the details of a potential agreement.”
On the battlefield, Russian forces continue their offensive, with strikes reported this week on civilian infrastructure in the Zaporizhzhia region. Ukrainian defences remain under pressure but have not collapsed, according to Western analysts.
Meanwhile, Putin has given no indication of compromise. He has highlighted new hypersonic missile systems and lifted a moratorium on deploying nuclear-capable intermediate-range missiles, raising fears of a new arms race.
With pressure building on all sides, a Trump-Putin summit could shape the next phase of the conflict — but as Ms Kavanagh pointed out, the stakes are high.
