Monday saw the unveiling of Reform UK’s signature criminal justice policy, or a continuation thereof. This makes a great deal of sense, given that domestic issues like immigration, law and order, the economy, and healthcare will likely win the 2029 election for Reform UK. But if Reform wins that next election and Nigel Farage does indeed become the next prime minister, the party needs to prepare the world for what this revolutionary government would look like, and set out exactly on what terms its foreign policy would be conducted. This is especially critical since two seminal Reform issues – immigration and making the most of Brexit – are strongly linked to foreign affairs.
In the case of the former, there are push and pull factors, while Farage’s ideas about sending criminals overseas would require some serious international outreach. In the case of the latter, Brexit Britain’s future surely lies with the Anglosphere and Commonwealth. US trade deals aside, Reform could take the initiative drawing the UK closer with the Commonwealth Realms of Australia, Canada and New Zealand.
Rather than the ‘strategic shrinkage’ that Labour and the Tories have engaged in, drawing Britain closer to those states which share King Charles as head of state would not only increase the UK’s global reach but likely prove popular among the Reform faithful.
Given the potential for freer movement between Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK – the ‘CANZUK four’ – this could also be a way to maximise Reform’s support among young Britons who stand to gain far more than they think they lose with Brexit. After all, who needs Belgium when you could move freely to New South Wales?
Linked strongly to foreign policy is the issue of defence. Reform’s support base is no doubt proud of Britain’s armed forces and thoroughly angry it has been run down so badly by successive governments.
The UK is still (by the skin of its teeth) a strong nuclear weapons state with a Bluewater navy. Those who say Britain should happily retreat from the world should ask whether they really want Blighty rendered even more dependent on America, given President Trump’s understandable indignation at unilaterally protecting the Western world.
Nigel Farage could well find himself a wartime PM if China makes good on its promise to have a crack at Taiwan by the late 2020s. At a minimum, the UK would be called upon to support its allies with arms, and would need to cope with an economic shock far exceeding what we saw in the pandemic.
None of this can be divorced from domestic considerations – from the economy to immigration (indeed a world war could catalyse a massive worldwide refugee crisis) – which makes a fully thought-through foreign and defence policy absolutely imperative.
Fortunately for Reform, the party has time on its side, and the fact these things need to be discussed at all points to the increasing likelihood of a Reform government. Still, the world needs to know much more about what a Farage government would look like.
That outreach needs to begin in earnest and a clearly thought-out foreign policy needs to be formulated very soon. Immigration may be the focus of voters back home. But the world will want to know what Reform will look like on the international stage.