France may be heading for “government shutdown”, as left-wing and right-wing forces appear set to “bring down the government” over its controversial budget.
Michel Barnier, Emmanuel Macron’s pick for French Prime Minister and the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, has sought to pass an “austerity” budget, according to economist Jérôme Creel, by slashing spending and hiking taxes. At present, France’s budget deficit is more than twice the level permitted by the EU’s rules.
Despite the government’s insistence that the tough measures are necessary, the National Assembly, which would vote on the budget, is dominated by the National Rally on the right, and members from the New Popular Front on the left. Neither have indicated they will back the radical reforms.
The lack of political will to vote through Barnier’s proposals leaves him with one option: to force the budget through without a vote using Article 49.3. But wielding such a tool comes with a cost – it could topple the government and plunge France into further economic chaos.
In a post on LinkedIn, Barnier today wrote: “Our country’s budgetary situation is serious. Difficult choices must be made, and, as I told you, I want to tell you the truth.”
Later in his social media statement, he admitted it was more than likely that he would need to force the budget through without a vote: “There is currently no majority in the National Assembly. It is therefore likely that we will have to resort to 49.3 to get this budget adopted.”
If Barnier sidelines the National Assembly, under the French constitution members would be able to table a motion of censure and force the government to resign. Earlier in the year, members from the New Popular Front tabled one such motion, but failure to secure the support of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally saw the motion fail, sparing the government.
It remains unclear whether National Rally would back the motion this time. Earlier this week, Le Pen was ambiguous, saying that “as things stand” her party would vote with the left to bring Macron’s government to heel and force them out.
Barnier told LinkedIn users of the risks associated with forcing his government to resign.
“The oppositions will then have the opportunity to table a motion of censure, and bring down the government. I respect their rights”, he wrote.
“But what would happen then? No more budget. Serious turbulence on the financial markets. Numerous malfunctions at all levels.
“Let’s take an example: farmers. They are waiting for the implementation of the government’s commitments. The 2025 budget will make this possible, as well as the commitment to measures recently announced with the Minister of Agriculture, to respond to the serious crises in the agricultural world. Rejecting the budget means compromising the support promised by the State.”
