Russia is feared to be planning ‘false flag’ attacks on its shadow fleet that could be framed on Britain. Moscow’s foreign intelligence service, the SVR, has reportedly accused Britain of preparing to carry out raids on its shadow fleet, a collection of old tankers that are known to transport oil.
The SVR allegedly said the attacks would be made to look like accidents, so that Britain and the West could claim that the ships were a danger, and move to restrict their movement. The SVR report claimed: “British intelligence services are planning to use Nato allies to launch a mass raid on the ‘shadow fleet’; for this purpose, an ecological catastrophe in international waters is being prepared,” reports The Telegraph. It follows the major oil spill in December 2024.
The SVR report went on: “The plan provides for the organisation of a major sabotage, the damage from which will make it possible to declare the transportation of Russian oil a threat to all international shipping. This will untie the West’s hands in choosing methods of counteraction.”
This has sparked fears that Russia is preparing to create a ‘false flag’, an operation designed to look like an attack, so the West does not impose further sanctions on the fleet.
Dr Sidharth Kaushal, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), a London-based think tank, expressed concerns that the report may be used to shift blame, if a disaster did happen.
He told The Telegraph: “One interpretation might be that the Russians are insuring themselves against something breaking down or sinking, in a way that creates a pretext for restricting [their movement across the ocean].”
In 2024, two ships believed to be part of Russia’s shadow fleet caused an oil spill with severe environmental damage in the Black Sea.
Sanctions are believed to have severely impacted the fleet. According to the Brookings Institute, a Washington-based think tank, it now carries 20 million barrels per month of oil, compared to 50 million at the start of the year.
In a report published by the European Parliament in November 2024, it said the Russian shadow fleet makes use of “flags of convenience” to evade sanctions, “employing a variety of tactics to conceal the origins of its cargo”.
A UN treaty can restrict ships entering their territorial waters if they pose an environmental risk or safety hazard. However, the ships currently cross through the territorial waters of Western nations.