Russia may be attempting to justify a future conflict against NATO and generate domestic support for aggression against the organisation, experts have warned. As Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine drags on, the Kremlin “continues to promote an informal state ideology centered on Russian nationalism”, which officials “may intend to use in justification of a protracted war in Ukraine and a future conflict against NATO”, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported.
The outlook is designed to “shape and galvanise future generations” both in Russia and occupied areas of Ukraine as regards a future military conflict against the western alliance, it added. The ISW wrote: “The Kremlin seeks to foster national exceptionalism and further isolate Russia from the West, including by portraying the West as the enemy with whom Russia is engaged in an existential conflict.” This involves using the “mythos” of Russian history, such as World War 2, known in the country as the “Great Patriotic War” to encourage “unity” within society.
Specialists added that the government continues to portray the country as “in direct geopolitical confrontation with the West in order to generate domestic support for the war in Ukraine and future Russian aggression against NATO”.
This is contributed towards by strengthening relationships between Russia and Iran, North Korea, and China, those in the know said, which constitutes “a growing threat to Western security”.
The ISW added that “Russia is actively pursuing a global anti-Western alliance”, and its foreign minister Sergey Lavrov’s has underscored the Kremlin’s efforts to “install an informal state ideology that perpetuates the idea that the West is in an existential conflict with Russia in order to foster unquestioning support of the Russian government”.
Officials have been “setting informational conditions” to justify potential aggression against Moldova and the Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – using an alleged need to protect its “compatriots abroad”, experts suggested, as well as the claim that these countries are part of the “Russkiy Mir”.
Translated as Russian World, which the German Council of Foreing Relations was devised by intellectuals, academics, and journalists close to the Kremlin between 1995 and 2000.
It was publicly introduced into political discourse by Putin in 2001, and, in the years that followed, pro-Kremlin policy makers “systematically connected the concept to their efforts to legitimise domestic and foreign policy”.
It comes as the Vice President of the European Commission, Kaja Kallas, denounced Russian strikes on Ukraine’s cities as “depraved” and “meant to kill civilians”.
She added: “Flags are flying at half-mast to mourn the victims.
“More weapons for Ukraine and tougher sanctions on Russia are the fastest way to end the war.
“Getting more air defences to Ukraine fast is our priority.”