America could be hurtling towards a second Civil War within the next decade as California edges closer to secession, a top political expert has warned.
Professor Benjamin Cohen, of the University of California-Santa Barbara, said the chances of a violent national rupture are “substantially greater than zero,” as political polarisation deepens across the United States, reports MailOnline.
In a chilling hypothetical scenario, the political economist envisages California declaring independence from the US in 2035—sparking an explosive response from the federal government.
“President [JD] Vance has threatened a military takeover of state government in Sacramento, backed by National Guard troops from nearby red states,” he writes. “Armed conflict looks increasingly possible.”
Secession chances
While many may dismiss the idea of secession as far-fetched, Cohen says powerful identity politics are driving movements within so-called “dream states” to break away from the union.
“Identity can be a very powerful motivator,” he said. “That’s why I worry about the risk of civil war. When it comes to something as strong as a sense of community identity, rationalism falls by the wayside.”
Civil War in ten years
His concerns appear to be widely shared. A YouGov poll found that 40 percent of Americans believe a second civil war within ten years is either “somewhat or very likely.”
The same number think the conflict would split along party lines between Democrats and Republicans—rather than traditional state boundaries.
“It’s difficult for me to imagine how things would divide up if there were a civil war,” Cohen admitted. “But the probability of such a war is substantially greater than zero.”
Cohen believes the idea of secession is not being taken seriously enough, branding it an “underappreciated phenomenon.”
Such a move would see states reject the authority of the Constitution, create new governments, and take control over taxes, defence and trade—something the Supreme Court has ruled is illegal without nationwide consent.
Federal intervention
Should a state like California try to break away, the federal government would likely brand it unconstitutional and move swiftly to block it—much like in Cohen’s fictional scenario.
But rising public distrust in Washington continues to fuel fears. The same YouGov poll of 1,111 US adults revealed that 31 percent think the US could become a fascist dictatorship by 2035. A further 20 percent fear a shift to communism.
“It seems to me we cannot ignore the risks of the current fissures and fragmentation—the breakdown of a sense of community,” Cohen added.
Dream States
In his new book Dream States: A Lurking Nightmare for the World Order, Cohen explores how Americans increasingly want to redraw the nation’s map to better reflect their political views.
He notes that while New York City leans heavily Democrat, large parts of upstate New York favour Republicans. “The reality is there are many people within those states that are very unhappy with the arrangement,” he said.
“They’d prefer to draw the lines in a different way. In some cases, they’re prepared to fight to redraw those lines.”
California fault line
In California, tensions have already erupted. Riots broke out in Los Angeles over the federal government’s mass deportations of illegal immigrants—prompting President Trump to lash out at state governor Gavin Newsom.
The president accused Newsom of pushing the country closer to civil war and said he would support the governor’s arrest. “I would do it,” Trump said on June 9, after Newsom dared the White House to act.
“He’s a nice guy but he’s grossly incompetent, everybody knows it,” the president added. “I don’t want a Civil War. Civil War would happen if you left it to people like him.”
A federal appeals court has since upheld the president’s right to maintain control over National Guard troops deployed to Los Angeles to deal with anti-ICE protests.