A new poll suggests that Reform would emerge as the largest party in a hung parliament – explore how your constituency is likely to vote using our interactive map.
If an election were to take place tomorrow, YouGov’s MRP poll predicts that Labour would not only lose their majority, shedding 233 seats, but would also become the second party by a significant margin in a hung parliament where Reform UK would be the dominant party.
According to YouGov’s forecasts, Nigel Farage’s party would secure 271 seats.
Labour would follow with 178 seats, while the Lib Dems would come third with 81.
The Conservative Party would find themselves relegated to fourth place with a mere 46 seats, 76 less than their current tally in parliament.
In Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP) would once again emerge as the leading party north of the border. If a general election were to occur now, YouGov predicts that the SNP would secure 38 seats.
The Greens would gain just three additional seats, bringing their total to seven.
You can check out how your constituency is expected to vote by using our interactive map:.
The YouGov forecasts suggest that the Reform party could snatch seats from all three major parties. Labour stands to lose 194 seats to Nigel Farage’s party, while the Conservatives would forfeit 69 and the Lib Dems a mere two.
Additionally, Labour is predicted to lose 27 seats to the SNP in Scotland, six to the Conservatives in England, three each to the Greens and Plaid, and one to the Liberal Democrats.
Reform’s most promising performance in a seat they don’t currently hold is projected to be Castle Point in Essex, with YouGov placing the party at 43%, despite the constituency voting Tory in the last election. The Labour stronghold of Barnsley North is also expected to swing towards Reform, with a predicted 42% of the vote share.
Barnsley South (Labour) and Louth & Horncastle (Conservative) are likewise forecasted to give 42% of their votes to Reform. The Labour-held seats of Dudley, Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes, and Easington are anticipated to vote 41% for Reform, while eight other Labour constituencies – Makerfield, Rawmarsh & Conisbrough, Stoke-on-Trent North, Amber Valley, Normanton & Hemsworth, Hornchurch & Upminster, South West Norfolk, and North Warwickshire & Bedworth – are predicted to yield 40% of their votes to Reform.
It follows another poll hours earlier which predicted Reform could win a whopping 377 seats.