Pollster Ipsos recently gave Reform UK a huge poll lead which, according to analysis by Sky News, would translate into a hefty parliamentary majority if it was replicated across every constituency at the next election. Now another polling company – YouGov – has looked at exactly where support for the main parties is coming from. As predicted, Reform scores best among males and older voters.
But this doesn’t tell the full story. Reform still polls highest among both genders and while Nigel Farage’s party polls better among those with lower qualifications and wages, it also does better among homeowners (although Reform also does well among council tenants). Perhaps the bigger story is how decimated the Tories have been. In every age bracket Reform outperforms the Conservatives, even among younger voters where Labour still commands the highest support.
Reform is only one point behind the Tories among graduates and the highest social class, while the two parties poll equal among the highest household income group. This carries risks for Farage, however. The longer the Conservative numbers crash, the more tenuous leader Kemi Badenoch’s position becomes. A new Tory leader may not reverse Conservative fortunes, but could they really do any worse? Right now, Badenoch’s leadership is a huge asset for Reform, but for how long?
Here’s another risk: data consistently shows Reform doing well among voters previously disengaged from politics. YouGov data shows Reform outperforming other parties among people with medium and low political attention. But getting this vote out – and converting such a demographic into “definites” on election day – will be an almighty task for Reform. No good these voters saying they’ll vote and then not turning up when Reform needs them.
Yet while risks lie in the data for Reform, the direction of travel is crystal clear: Farage’s party is holding its lead, not just among men and older voters, but among both men and women, and across different social groups.
The Tories meanwhile are dying on their feet but therein lies risk for Farage if the backbenches defenestrate Badenoch. Converting previously apathetic voters into definites will also be a heck of a task. Still, Reform’s star is not yet dimming and the other parties are clearly entering panic mode.