The real story of the recent exchange of fire between Israel and Iran is that the world really doesn’t care. Let me qualify this: like Gaza, and Ukraine, the world cares enough to sympathise, send aid, medical supplies, and possibly arms, but not enough to roll the sleeves up and get stuck in.
For America, and the West, vital interests are simply not threatened in either Eastern Europe or the Middle East, unless Iran was suicidal enough to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway critical to the world’s oil supply. As I have written for years, the one flashpoint which could turn red hot is the status of Taiwan, the island democracy long coveted by Beijing’s Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Ostensibly the CCP wants to settle a score from China’s 1940s civil war and sees Taiwan – separated by roughly 100 miles from the Chinese mainland – as an inalienable part of China.
Certainly accessing Taiwan’s all-important semiconductor capabilities will be a consideration for Beijing. But the real incentive is breaking through the so-called “first island chain”.
The chain represents a network of island democracies allied to the West which, right now, block China’s military – the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) – from projecting power into the Pacific.
These states include Japan and the Philippines, with Taiwan right in the middle. Without being able to push through the chain and dominate its own backyard, the CCP cannot hope to be the geopolitical equal of the United States.
This is a longstanding goal of the CCP and its leader Xi Jinping, whose reputation now largely depends on achieving this objective. The loss of face of not doing so before the next CCP congress in 2027 could be unbearable.
But just as Beijing cannot afford to back down nor can Uncle Sam allow the CCP a free hand. China controlling Taiwan would decimate America’s alliance and defence systems in the regime, for one
Moreover, a major reason for America’s economic might is the power of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. A big reason for this is the US Navy’s role as master of the sea lanes. Concede that role in Asia to the PLA and who knows what could happen next.
True, China would take a huge economic hit from invading or blockading Taiwan, but – like America in World War Two – China now has the industrial advantage as the workshop of the world, never mind its home advantage.
Yes, the Taiwan Strait is tough to cross but it is not impossible. Yes, Taiwan has few good landing sites for naval vessels but it does have some. Moreover China has been building new mobile piers to counter this impediment.
Fine, America has the technological advantage (for now) but China has raw numbers and industrial capacity on its side. Unlike the West, China is stockpiling food, securing energy and building missile silos.
Be under no illusion, should China invade or blockade Taiwan the US will be forced to intervene for no other reason that – unlike in Ukraine or West Asia – its vital interests would be enormously threatened.
Do not forget either that next door neighbours Japan and the Philippines host US troops, and an attack on either would trigger an obligatory retaliation by the Americans.
It seems likely nearby Australia would also be dragged in should war erupt in the region. With the Aussies and the Americans involved, how long before the blue water naval power of the UK did not get stuck in?
At a minimum Britain would be a huge arms supplier, while the UK – like every country on earth – could not escape the economic impact of a war which engulfed Asia and shut the Taiwan Strait.
So, again, the world notices Israel and Iran, Israel and Gaza, and Russia and Ukraine. The world offers medical support and assistance, alongside many good wishes and sometimes military aid. But Taiwan would be on a totally different scale.
Do not forget Xi needs something to show his people by 2027. If you think the CCP cares little about its peoples’ opinion, just remember it was unprecedented protests which helped end China’s Zero-Covid policy.
Israel again might be in the headlines, with Ukraine rumbling on and making news all the time. But on the other side of the planet lies the world’s biggest flashpoint, bigger than Israel/Iran, Russia/Ukraine or India/Pakistan.