Angela Rayner stood-in for Sir Keir Starmer at today’s Prime Minister’s Questions, fielding questions on grooming gangs, small boats, deportations, housing, crime, Israel and Iran. Increasingly, the question being asked around Westminster is whether she will one day step into his shoes on a permanent basis.
The Deputy Prime Minister is among the most-loved figures in the Labour party – in sharp contrast with Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Recent Survation polling for LabourList found she is the second most popular cabinet minister among party members.
Energy Secretary and former leader Ed Miliband topped the poll with a favourability rating of +74, with Ms Rayner not far behind on +71. Ms Reeves languished on a minus rating of -28. When asked whom they wanted to lead the party after Sir Keir, Ms Rayner was again the second most popular option.
Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham was the most popular contender, with 29% naming him as their first choice candidate. The hitch for Mr Burnham is he is not an MP.
Meanwhile, the Deputy PM was the first choice of one in five self-declared members, with Health Secretary Wes Streeting a considerable distance behind on 8%.
When the leadership contest comes, there will be immense pressure for Labour to have its first woman leader. It jars that a proudly progressive party has only been led by men while the Conservatives are on their fourth female leader.
Sceptics who thought Ms Rayner would be the centre of chaos in Government has so far been proven wrong. It is the Chancellor who is the focus of the most serious storms.
The shock axing of universal winter fuel payments for pensioners was condemned as duplicitous and cruel, and the uproar – which angered the vital pensioner voting bloc – has forced the Government’s highest profile u-turn. Likewise the inheritance tax changes affecting farmers are widely seen as a punitive Treasury raid.
But the biggest problem for Ms Reeves is that she is blamed for anaemic economic growth which has seen multiple forecasts downgraded. Her suprise decision to hike up National Insurance Contributions for employers is denounced as the “jobs tax” – and if unemployment continues to rise and vacancies fall she will be blamed.
The most recent YouGov polling shows just 18% of Britons have a favourable opinion on Ms Reeves – although this is up from 14% on the previous month and her best rating since the start of the year. Overall, she has a negative favourability rating of -42.
In contrast, memories of when Ms Rayner was pilloried for referring to Conservatives as “scum” are receding. She is a valiant defender of the PM and the Government and now seems a force of stability on the frontbench beside Sir Keir.
She gives every impression of being focused on hitting her epic housebuilding target while working – to the alarm of many in the business community – to turbo-charge workers’ rights. A leaked memo showing her department pushing for wealth tax rises at a time when many Labour activists are worried about spending cuts will have only deepened her support on the Left.
By the time of the next leadership election, if she is seen as a competent cabinet minister who tackled the housing crisis and whose survived the pressures of Government with her moral compass intact then she may well start the race as the frontrunner.
But the Rachel Reeves story is not over. Labour does like to give Chancellors the top job. Hugh Gaitskell led the party though he never made it to Number 10; James Callaghan ran both the Treasury and the Government, as did Gordon Brown.
Ms Reeves will hope the economy improves and then her party and the country will give her credit for taking wildly controversial decisions. Right now, there are many more important issues demanding her attention than whatever ambitions she may harbour but this is also about the future of Britain.
Labour is trailing well behind Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Sir Keir’s party won its landslide with less than 34% of the vote, and now three out of 10 say they would back Reform.
To see off this challenge, Labour urgently needs a vision for the party and the nation which allows voters to look to the future with hope. Any MP who can articulate that today will receive the cheers of their comrades.