Intense severe storms will threaten nearly 50 million people beginning Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley with hail, damaging wind gusts, and possible tornadoes, as a cold front sweeps through the region, leaving winter-like temperatures in its wake.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has increased the threat to a Level 3 out of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms for a corridor across central Illinois, central Indiana, and central Ohio — including the Indianapolis metro area.
A Level 2 out of 5 threat covers a wider area, including Chicago, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh.
A strengthening dip in the jet stream over eastern Canada will drive the cold front through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley, as the system moves around a large heat dome that is currently baking the western part of the country.
All modes of severe weather are possible, including damaging wind gusts and egg-sized hail. The SPC emphasized that the potential for wind gusts stronger than 75 mph was the main reason for upgrading the threat to Level 3.
Storms are expected to organize into a line by mid-to-late Thursday afternoon, and tornadoes will be possible if enough energy is present for supercell thunderstorms to form.
The areas most at risk of a strong tornado span a corridor from Peoria, Illinois, eastward through Indianapolis and much of Ohio to Pittsburgh.
The system will race south and east through Thursday night, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by Friday morning. Widespread soaking rain is expected for much of the East Coast through Friday, causing potential travel delays even as storms become less severe.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, storms will develop into a line heading into the evening hours — roughly from Pittsburgh to Kansas City, where damaging winds will become the primary concern.
Depending on exactly when storms develop Thursday afternoon, rain and severe weather could impact several Major League Baseball’s Opening Day games — specifically the Chicago Cubs opener against the Washington Nationals, as well as games being hosted in Cincinnati and St. Louis.
Severe storms will persist through the night as the front moves south and east.
The cold front is expected to slow down slightly through Thursday night, and flash flooding is possible as storms linger over the same area.
Rainfall rates are expected to increase overnight from Western Pennsylvania into central Illinois, and a widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain is likely.
As the front pushes south into the Southeast by Saturday, thunderstorms may linger, although they are expected to weaken.
Winter’s last gasp
Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop into the 40s and 30s on Friday across much of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast after conditions in the upper 60s and 70s.
The winter-like cold extends through the first half of the weekend, with more than 100 million people experiencing below-average temperatures on Saturday from Maine to South Carolina.
