The £286 billion nuclear submarine deal under one of Britain’s biggest security pacts appears to be teetering on the brink of collapse, raising serious concerns about Australian, British and US defence plans.
The deal has faced scrutiny from defence experts, leading to warnings that it might not come to fruition.
Hugh White, an emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University and a former defence adviser, expressed scepticism about the effectiveness of the plan.
In an interview with ABC RN’s Global Roaming, Professor White said: “I think the chance of the plan unfolding effectively is extremely low.” He criticised the reliance on nuclear-powered submarines, citing their exorbitant cost and technical complexities.
The AUKUS security partnership, announced on September 15, 2021, between Australia, the UK, and the US, aimed to replace Australia’s previous £70 billion deal with France for conventional-powered submarines.
The pillars of AUKUS included the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines and the sharing of advanced technologies like quantum computing and artificial intelligence.
Professor White outlined two main concerns regarding AUKUS. Firstly, he questioned the necessity of nuclear-powered submarines, underscoring their higher costs and operational difficulties. Secondly, he expressed doubt about Australia receiving the submarines, highlighting reliance on future decisions from the US and UK governments and formidable technical challenges.
Allan Behm, the director of the international and security affairs program at the Australia Institute, echoed doubts about the feasibility of the deal.
He raised concerns about Australia’s lack of experience in maintaining nuclear-powered submarines and the potential strain on resources required for the complex endeavour.
The strategic importance of AUKUS in deterring China has also been stressed by Australian leaders, but Professor White warned of pitfalls. He suggested that AUKUS could entangle Australia in a conflict between the US and China, questioning the wisdom of committing to a war for submarines that may not be necessary.
Moreover, the estimated cost of the submarine program, reaching up to £286 billion over the next 30 years, has drawn significant criticism. Behm argued that concentrating such a substantial portion of the defence budget on this project could lead to constrained capabilities in other crucial areas.
