Believe it or not, Team USA has won just one of the five World Baseball Classics. Whether it’s because the tournament isn’t taken as seriously in the United States as it is elsewhere, or because it falls in the middle of Spring Training, the Stars and Stripes have struggled to assert their dominance in an event meant to celebrate America’s pastime.
That hasn’t stopped bookmakers from installing Team USA at the top of the betting board as an odds-on favorite to win this year’s WBC.
The Americans are -105 to lift the trophy at FanDuel Sportsbook, putting them ahead of three-time champions Japan (+380), the Dominican Republic (+460), and Venezuela (+850). Puerto Rico (19/1) and Mexico (19/1) are the only other countries listed below 60/1 in the 20-team field.
At first glance, this does seem pretty straightforward. Team USA’s roster is loaded, led by Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Bobby Witt Jr., and Paul Skenes, and their draw isn’t daunting. The Americans are -650 to win Pool B, and the stiffest competition on their half of the bracket is Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Canada.
They will only have to face one of Japan, the Dominican Republic, and/or Venezuela in the tournament, and it won’t be until the championship in Miami on March 17.
It’s all there for the taking for Team USA, and I wouldn’t stand in anybody’s way of betting the Yanks to win it, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some other bets on the board with more upside.
2026 World Baseball Classic best bets
Canada to win World Baseball Classic (60/1, FanDuel)
The Canadiens profile as an intriguing sleeper. They’ve got some pop with Josh Naylor, his brother Bo, and Tyler O’Neill, and they’ve got pitching depth. Jameson Taillon, James Paxton, Cal Quantrill, Michael Soroka, and Logan Allen are all expected to play meaningful roles and should give the Canucks a fighting chance in Pool A.
That brings me to the real reason why Canada’s worth a hard look at this price: Their path.
Placed in Pool A with Puerto Rico, Cuba, Panama, and Colombia, there is every chance for Team Canada to not only advance to the knockout stage of the tournament, but also do so as the top seed from their group, which would mean they’d avoid a matchup with Team USA until the semifinals.
Puerto Rico is a -280 favorite to top Pool A, but that price seems outlandish when you look at their roster. The pitching is suspect, and the offense is wanting compared to previous years. This is easily the softest group in the tournament.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto to win MVP (30/1, bet365)
Only one position player (Robinson Cano, 2013) has been named MVP of the World Baseball Classic, so in a lot of ways, you’re just trying to guess who will be the winning pitcher of the championship game.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has as good a chance as anybody.
Not only is Yamamoto the ace for the tournament’s second-favorite, but it seems likely that he’ll get the ball for more than one start, which is not the case for some of the other aces participating in the WBC.
Yamamoto was lights out for the Dodgers last year, and he’s just five months removed from being named MVP of the World Series.
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Logan Webb to win MVP (50/1, bet365)
Like Yamamoto, Logan Webb has a terrific chance of getting the ball in the championship game. He’s already stated that he plans on pitching on multiple occasions in the tournament, and his reputation for being durable should give Team USA plenty of confidence that the Giants’ ace can handle a significant workload over the next few weeks.
Webb will have to contend with Paul Skenes for the honor of starting the championship if Team USA gets there, but the Pirates’ ace is listed at 16/1, so we’ll take a shot on the much bigger price and hope the stars align.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.