Despite the emergence of Matthew Schaefer, the presence of Ilya Sorokin and the hiring of Pete DeBoer, the Islanders come into the 2026-27 campaign with muted expectations.
Oddsmakers have pegged the Isles as the biggest long shot in the Metropolitan Division, and they are tied with the Red Wings for the longest odds in the Eastern Conference.
The betting market is far from infallible, and there is almost always at least one NHL team that flips the script each season, but it’s pretty easy to see how the bookmakers got to this conclusion.
While the Islanders have some impressive pillars in place with Schaefer, Sorokin, Bo Horvat, Mathew Barzal,and emerging talents like Simon Holmstrom and Cal Ritchie, they didn’t bring in any supporting pieces in the offseason.
It seemed an odd choice to essentially stand pat, especially since the team made some “win-now” moves at the trade deadline just a few months ago.
This offseason looked like a prime opportunity for Mathieu Darche to find a way to clear space for new blood by moving out veterans on long-term deals, but the second-year general manager instead preached a message of “wait ’til next summer.”
It was an odd choice since only a couple of players will be out of contract, and the Islanders were not that far off from being a playoff team in 2025-26 despite terrible special teams and questionable coaching.
2026-27 Islanders season preview, odds, best bet
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Stanley Cup odds | 150/1 |
| Eastern Conference odds | 55/1 |
| Metropolitan Division odds | 25/1 |
| Make playoffs (Yes/No) | +220/-275 |
| Over/Under | 88.5 points |
Had the Islanders decided to be a touch more aggressive in the summer and re-shape their blueline and added another impact forward (or kept Anders Lee), you could see a path to contention.
Instead, the Islanders’ game plan seems to be counting on DeBoer to get the most out of this unbalanced roster.
There is certainly a chance that does happen — it wasn’t too long ago when another elite coach, Barry Trotz, turned the long-shot Islanders into a contender in his first year — but the market is not convinced.
Best bet(s): Matthew Schaefer to win the Norris Trophy (20/1) & Hart Trophy (110/1, Fanatics Sportsbook)
If you are bullish on the Islanders’ chances to upset the odds, there are a number of ways to back them.
DeBoer is a decent price (28/1) to win the Jack Adams, Sorokin can be had at +880 odds to win the Vezina and a couple of rookies, Victor Eklund (50/1) and Cole Eiserman (150/1), could be worth a hard look to win the Calder Trophy.
But let’s not overthink this one too much.
If the Isles are going to be in the mix, it will be because of one person.
We’ve never seen an 18-year-old defenseman take the NHL by storm the way Schaefer did in 2025-26.
It wasn’t just the eye-popping point totals (23G, 36A in 82 games), but it was also what wasn’t showing up in the box score.
Schaefer dominated his minutes at 5-on-5 and never slowed down despite averaging nearly four more minutes of ice time (24:41) than any other Islanders player.
As an 18-year-old, Schaefer was one of the 10 best defensemen in the NHL, and the bookmakers believe he has a decent chance to go even further than that this campaign.
Most sportsbooks have the teen sensation listed behind just Cale Makar, Zach Werenski, Quinn Hughes, Lane Hutson and Rasmus Dahlin to win the Norris Trophy.
You can get Schaefer at 20/1 to win the Norris at Fanatics Sportsbook, which is a fine bet, but if you’re going that route, you may as well pinch off a small piece of that bet and put it on Schaefer to win the Hart, too.
Betting on the NHL?
If the Islanders are going anywhere this season, Schaefer will need to be even better than he was in his debut.
If he does that, he’ll not only be in the running for the Norris, but could capture enough Hart attention to make the triple-digit odds worth the risk.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
