A recently discovered asteroid that was initially believed to be at risk of striking Earth in 2032 has now been calculated as more likely to hit the moon. The object named 2024YR4 will be the largest asteroid to hit our closest neighbour — if it strikes — within the last 5,000 years and will leave a crater about a mile long.
Originally thought to be a threat to Earth in about the next seven years, new data suggests that the planet is safe, but the moon is not out of danger. Scientists put the risk to the moon of being hit at about 4%, although they will know for certain the next time the asteroid is viewable around 2028. At the moment, the object is obscured due to the sun.
2024YR4 is about 200 feet across, and if it strikes the moon, it could leave an impression on the luna surface similar in size to the meteor crater in Arizona.
Dr. Paul Wiegert, a professor of astronomy and physics at the University of Western Ontario, told CNN: “If YR4 strikes the moon on the nearer side so we can see it, there should be a bright flash. And then, those small moon rocks essentially will fall into the Earth’s atmosphere, where they will produce a brilliant meteor shower.”
While it is believed that there is no significant danger to Earth directly, a meteor strike on the moon could affect our planet’s satellites. Any astronauts in space at the time could also be at risk, especially those on or near the moon’s surface.
Despite initally being considered as a threat to Earth, observations from the James Webb Space Telescope and others estimated the probability of YR4 hitting Earth as a very low probability. Scientists are now confident that the asteroid will likely miss the planet altogether, although there is still a small chance the moon is in danger of being hit.
Asteroid 2024 YR4’s potential impact triggered the activation of the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG). The alarm was raised due to the object’s size and initial impact probability.
On March 26, 2025, the James Webb Space Telescope, which is operated by NASA, captured images of asteroid 2024 YR4 that indicate the asteroid is about the size of a 15-story building. Scientists are interested in using the observatory to measure the asteroid’s properties to understand what objects of this size are like to help inform the worldwide scientific community of the hazards they could pose to Earth.
The ESA and NASA are continuing to monitor the asteroid, which has proven difficult due to its visibility being affected by the sun. The current assessment by space agencies and scientists is that it does not pose a significant threat of impacting Earth or the moon.